Virginia vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 1

After a fantastic season in Knoxville, Tennessee will look to sustain success under head coach Josh Heupel, but will need to do so with some new pieces taking over in key places.

The Volunteers will start transfer quarterback Joe Milton, who lost his starting job to Hendon Hooker two seasons ago, while also looking to replace Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt at wide receiver. The team will have a great opportunity to establish some momentum as massive home favorites against a rebuilding Virginia team.

Tennessee will stick to a similar script that worked last season under Heupel's direction, play fast and put speed in space. It'll be way too much for a patchwork Virginia team to overcome, but is it enough to cover the point spread?

Let's break that down and hand out a Week 1 best bet.

Curious of the changing game clock rules? I broke down the new pace of play in Week 0 and its impact on betting totals. Read more HERE!

Virginia vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Tennessee vs. Virginia Betting Trends

• Tennessee went 9-3 against the spread (ATS) last season
• Tennessee went OVER in seven of 12 games last season
• Virginia went 4-6 ATS last season
• Virginia was 7-2-1 to the UNDER last season

Virginia vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 2nd
• Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
• Venue: Nissan Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Virginia Record:
• Tennessee Record: 

Virginia vs. Tennessee Key Players to Watch

Virginia

Tony Muskett: Muskett has been named the starting quarterback for Virginia. The Monmouth transfer will try to help second year head coach Tony Elliot rebuild an offense that fell off a cliff in 2022, averaging the eighth fewest points per drive in the country while averaging a little over five yards per play (104th).

Tennessee

Joe Milton: All eyes will be on the uber-athletic Milton, who lost his job to a Heisman contender in 2022 in Hooker after transferring from Michigan. While Milton has struggled as a passer, there is no denying his arm strength and physical abilities at 6'5" and 236 pounds. Milton did complete 19-of-28 passes for 231 yards and three touchdowns in the Vols 31-14 Orange Bowl win.

Virginia vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

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While I question the ceiling of Tennessee's offense in 2023 transitioning to Milton from Hooker, I don't believe it will be an issue against a lowly Virginia team. The Vols should overwhelm the Cavaliers in the passing game and also hold up nicely on defense in order to cover this near four touchdown spread.

Virginia's defense graded out as an above average defense in 2022, top 40 in both success rate and EPA/Play, but will not have the size on the defensive line to handle Tennessee's frenetic offense. The unit is undersized and graded outside the top 100 in line yards, meaning that the team was losing at the point of attack. Given that Tennessee plays with tempo, the team was top 10 in seconds per play last season, I expect UVA's defense to tire quickly, especially with an inept offense.

Muskett will try to lift up this Cavaliers offense, but for a unit that is bottom 10 in returning production, it's going to be tough sledding. Virginia was bottom 10 in EPA/Play last season, and while Tennessee's defense struggled overall last season, this is still an aggressive pass rush that was top 20 in tackles for loss. The team should get to Muskett at will.

I'm going to lay it with Tennessee, a team built to win by margin against inferior opponents.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!