Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Feb. 19 (Target THIS Total)
By Reed Wallach
In-state rivals do battle for the second time this year when Virginia Tech plays host to Virginia on Monday night.
Virginia has held pace in the ACC this season, built on its nine wins in the last 10 games, but now face a tough test on the road against Virginia Tech, who bolster one of the best offenses in league play. However, is this matchup setting up for a particular bet to make on the total?
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Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Odds, Spread and Total
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia Betting Trends
- Virginia is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
- Virginia Tech is 10-6 ATS at home this season
- Virginia has gone UNDER in 15 of 26 games at home this season
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech How to Watch
- Date: Monday, Feb. 19
- Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
- Venue: Cassell Coliseum
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Virginia Record: 20-6
- Virginia Tech Record: 14-11
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Key Players to Watch
Virginia
Reece Beekman: The guard has been one of the best facilitators in the ACC this season, ranking top three in assist rate, and it showed in the the Woos win at home last month against Virginia Tech. Beekman scored 16 points while grabbing four rebounds and four assists with four steals. Can he help keep the Woos' ACC regular season title hopes alive?
Virginia Tech
Sean Pedulla: Pedulla has been the highest usage player on the Hokies this season, leading the team in assist rate, shot percentage and free throw rate. Pedulla nearly willed the visitors to a road cover last month against Virginia, scoring 18 points with six rebounds and five assists, but he did have seven turnovers as the team lost by eight.
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick
While this game is set to be a tight one between two rivals, I'm most intrigued by the total, which is set in the mid 120's.
Virginia Tech has played with a bit of pace this season, top half of the ACC, but the unit is built around its motion offense that emphasizes the 3-point shot. The team is shooting north of 37% from beyond the arc on the third highest 3-point rate, but the group is going to struggle against the length of the Woos packline defense that ranks as a top 10 defense in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.
UVA slows games to a crawl, playing at the slowest tempo in the country. The offense is methodical as it hunts for the best shot, and the team is shooting a blistering 40% from distance in ACC play, likely offsetting it's rough offense that struggles to score inside (141st in field goal percentage at the rim this season, per Haslametrics).
Both teams can shoot, but I believe this game is going to have such few possessions that we see a limiting scoring output for each team in the first half. With Virginia's slow offense, and the length to disrupt Pedulla on the perimeter, Virginia Tech is 12th in ACC turnover percentage, this game can be clunky early.
Further, these games are typically lower scoring. There is a ton of familiarity between Mike Young's offense with Virginia Tech and Tony Bennett's packline scheme of Virginia and on the opposite side of the floor.
In seven games since Young took over in 2020, these two teams have played eight times with the average first half total clocking in 50.3. While players change over time, the schemes are tied closely to the respective coaches, so I believe there is a bit of predictive power here.
I'll count on limited possessions and scoring opportunities for both teams, sending this under the total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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