Wagner vs. Merrimack Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NEC Tournament Final (Back the Underdog Seahawks)
Merrimack won the Northeast Conference Tournament title last season, but were ineligible to advance to March Madness due to the NCAA’s policy on programs that move to a different division. No. 2 Merrimack is back in the NEC Tournament championship game and are laying points in a projected low-scoring tilt. Can they pull out a win to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time as a D-I program?
They’ll have to get past No. 6 Wagner, who pulled out a 66-56 upset of top-seeded Central Connecticut in Saturday’s semifinal. Wagner needs one more win as an underdog to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003.
Who will punch their ticket to the big dance? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet.
If you’re looking to bet on any NCAA game tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins.
Sign up for FanDuel now!
Wagner vs. Merrimack Odds, Spread and Total
Wagner vs. Merrimack Betting Trends
- Wagner is 13-15 ATS this season
- Merrimack is 17-12-1 ATS this season
- Wagner is 8-7 ATS as an underdog this season
- Merrimack is 10-12 ATS as a favorite this season
- The OVER is 10-18 in Wagner games this season
- The OVER is 12-18 in Merrimack games this season
Wagner vs. Merrimack How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 12
- Game time: 7 p.m. EST
- Venue: Lawler Arena
- How to watch (TV): ESPN2
- Wagner record: 15-15
- Merrimack record: 21-11
Wagner vs. Merrimack Key Players to Watch
Wagner
Melvin Council Jr.: Wagner’s leading scorer (14.7) and rebounder (5.8), Council, a Monroe College transfer, has been huge for the Seahawks this season. After going 0-for-8 from the field in Wagner’s first-round conference tournament win over Sacred Heart, Council had 12 points on 5-of-8 shooting in Saturday’s upset of Central Connecticut.
Merrimack
Jordan Derkack: The NEC’s leading scorer, Derkack averages 17.5 points per game but does it all for the Warriors as the team’s leader in rebounds (6.1) and assists (4). Derkack opened the conference tournament with a 23-point, 10-rebound double-double against Long Island, but shot just 2-of-9 from the field in Saturday’s win over Le Moyne.
Wagner vs. Merrimack Prediction and Pick
You won’t find many totals lower than this one in a matchup of the two best defenses in the NEC. Starting with Wagner, the Seahawks lead the league in scoring defense, permitting just 62.6 points per game. On the perimeter, the Seahawks are the No. 10 team in the nation, per KenPom, against 3-pointers and are the No. 2 defensive rebounding squad in the NEC.
Merrimack, the No. 2 scoring defense in the league, is 14th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and No. 5 in turnover percentage. Merrimack is allowing opponents to shoot just 41.7% from the field, which is tops in the NEC.
Who has the advantage? Wagner’s offense has little. The Seahawks are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation (No. 354 in effective field goal percentage), especially near the rim (No. 359 in 2-point shooting). If the Seahawks can find some rhythm, it could be on the offensive glass. Wagner is No. 147 in offensive rebounding percentage and Merrimack allows the most offensive rebounds per game in the NEC (12.3).
Merrimack’s edge comes from down low on the offensive end. The Warriors are top-100 in 2-point shooting and Wagner is No. 223 in defending shots from 2-point range.
Overall, points are at a premium and Wagner is playing some of its best basketball. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and have the defense to keep this projected rock fight within a possession or two for a full 40 minutes. Take the points.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.