Wake Forest vs. Clemson Prediction and Odds (Tigers are Outmatched on Defense and Outgunned on Offense)

The Littlejohn Coliseum in South Carolina is going to be buzzing tonight when the Clemson Tigers host their ACC conference rival Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Deacons have been a strange team to pin down this year, their overall record is strong at 21-7, and have won four of their last six games. But, they are just 11-6 in conference play and currently sit in fifth place in the ACC.

However, while the Demon Deacons struggle to beat ACC opponents, they are covering 64.7% of the time in conference play and are 7-2 ATS as underdogs. On the flip side, the Tigers are on a six-game losing streak and are just counting the days until the regular season is over. Clemson is 9-7 straight up in conference play and 5-9-2 ATS. Here are the odds for this conference clash, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Wake Forest vs. Clemson Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

• Wake Forest: -3 (-110)
• Clemson: +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Wake Forest -155
• Clemson +127

Total: 145.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wake Forest vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Both the Tigers and Deacons have defenses that look very similar at first glance and rank within three places of each other in scoring defense at 161st and 158th respectively. Right among the middle of the pack. The Deacons are a better traditional defense that is holding teams to a shooting percentage of just 40%, a three-point shooting percentage of 31.9%, and 45.9% from two-point range. All of those rank within the top 60 teams in the nation. Clemson, meanwhile, plays a slower pace which is why their PAA is in the same area as Wake. But, the metrics show that the WF defense is actually much better at playing defense while Clemson’s does a better job controlling the tempo.  

Where the argument for Clemson really falls apart is when we compare these offenses. Wake’s offense ranks 19th in scoring and 15th in effective field goal percentage. For comparison, Clemson ranks 128th and 81st in those categories. Wake Forest is also a superior rebounding team and has the fourth-best two-point shooting percentage at over 50. The spread here makes me wary of a trap, but Wake Forest as slight favorites in this spot is too hard to pass up. 

Pick: Wake Forest -3 (-110)

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