Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Monday, Jan. 22

Jan 17, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA;  North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) passes
Jan 17, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) passes / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina's winning streak grew to eight games on Saturday, improving its undefeated start to ACC play, with a double-digit road win against Boston College.

The Tar Heels are back in Chapel Hill to face Wake Forest, who bolsters an elite offense, but a team that has been suspect on the road, losing two of three ACC games away from home. This game has a sky-high total with the Tar Heels laying a considerable number, how should we bet on this one? We got you covered with our full betting preview below!

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Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Betting Trends

  • Wake Forest is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
  • North Carolina is 10-6 ATS this season as a favorite this season
  • Wake Forest has gone OVER in eight of 10 games this season
  • North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in ACC play

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, January 22nd
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Dean Smith Center
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Wake Forest Record: 13-5
  • North Carolina Record: 15-3

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch

Wake Forest

Efton Reid: After missing the first part of the season due to transfer complications, Reid is finally on the floor and making a big impact. The Wake Forest defense is allowing eight points fewer per 100 possessions with the seven-footer on the floor providing rim protection and the offense remains elite around him.

North Carolina

RJ Davis: The senior guard has been fantastic all season, shouldering more of the scoring load but increasing his efficiency, shooting 41% from beyond the arc this season. The Tar Heels offense has been elite all season with Davis at the helm, and will now face a middling Wake Forest defense.

Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

As noted in our Daily Dunk for Monday, I'm on the over in this ACC matchup:

This game should feature plenty of possessions with two teams that like to play in the open court.

North Carolina has been humming on both sides of the ball this season and has even survived a swoon in 3-point shooting through the early stages of conference play. The Tar Heels are shooting below 32% in ACC games this season, 12th in the conference and way down from the team's top 100 ranking over the balance of the season.

While Wake runs teams off the 3-point line and into the transfer Efton Reid's seven-foot frame, the team runs itself into foul trouble quite a bit, which will be impactful against a physical UNC team that leads the ACC in free throw rate in conference play.

On the other end, Wake Forest brings in the best offense in terms of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency in conference games. The team is shooting lights out from beyond the arc, and UNC's inability to pressure the ball (264th in turnover percentage) will let the Demon Deacons run its offense with little issue.

North Carolina is holding teams to 23% shooting from beyond the arc in league play, but if you look deeper, that number is a bit of smoke and mirrors.

The team benefited from Clemson's off-shooting game, hitting only one of 18 3-pointers, and also faced several poor perimeter shooting teams like North Carolina State. Wake Forest is shooting 39% from deep over the balance of the season and can ring up the Tar Heels from the perimeter, which ShotQuality deems is due to a five percent increase in the opponent's 3-point shooting.

I like the over in what should be an up tempo affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!