Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Best NRFI Bet to Make, Back Boston to Win on Road)

Happy Friday MLB fans!

We’re getting treated to quite the MLB slate on Friday, with a standalone afternoon game to begin the action where prized prospect Paul Skenes will make the second start of his career for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

There are a ton of aces in action tonight, ranging from Zack Wheeler and Max Fried to Brayan Bello and Freddy Peralta. 

With so many great pitchers on the mound, how should we bet on the baseball action tonight?

I have three plays to dive into, including a No Run First Inning pick that has not lost all season long!

Let’s break down these bets and their latest odds:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets Today for May 17

• Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles No Run First Inning (+100)
• Kyle Hendricks OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
• Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles No Run First Inning (+100)

Baltimore Orioles starter Cole Irvin gets the ball on Friday against Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller, and there’s one thing that they have in common: 

Neither pitcher has given up a run in the first inning this season.

Shockingly, this bet is at even money given that statistic, and Miller has been one of the better pitchers in the American League, posting a 2.66 ERA across eight starts. 

The Mariners righty has given up just two hits and four walks in the first inning this season, striking out 12 batters in those eight innings.

Irvin has been great in the opening frame as well, allowing just eight hits in the opening frame in 2024. 

I expect both of these offenses to be slowed down early on Friday. 

Kyle Hendricks OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)

Chicago Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks made his best start of the season his last time out, tossing five innings of two-hit ball in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

He faces them again on Friday, but I’m not sold on Hendricks having the same success this time around.

Before his last start, Hendricks had allowed five or more hits in all five of his outings, and he’s given up 39 hits in just 26.0 innings of work this season – good for a WHIP of 1.92. 

This trend has been going on for years for Hendricks, as he allowed the most hits in baseball in the 2021 season, and has posted a WHIP of 1.20 or higher in four straight seasons (including 2024). 

I can’t back him against the Pirates on Friday, even though he did keep them in check earlier this month. 

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Boston Red Sox have a dream matchup on the road on Friday, as they’ll take on the struggling St. Louis Cardinals (3-7 in their last 10 games) in St. Louis.

The Cardinals have been awful at home in 2024, going 6-11 straight up, and they are currently in last place in the NL Central. 

The worst part? Now, they’ll have to face Boston ace Brayan Bello, who has led the Sox to a 5-1 record in his six starts.

Bello comes into this matchup with a 3.13 ERA, allowing two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this season. St. Louis will counter with Kyle Gibson (3.67 ERA, 4.42 FIP), who has not won a start this month and has led the Cards to a 3-5 record in his eight outings. 

I’ll trust Boston to handle one of the worst teams in baseball on Friday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.