Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Can Padres Pull Another Upset vs. Dodgers?)
By Reed Wallach
MLB action continues through the weekend with plenty of high level matchups, but most eyes will be fixiated on the Padres looking to continue its recent success agianst the Dodgers out west on Saturday night.
Recent acquistion Luis Arraez walked it off against the Dodgers on Friday night, and San Diego will look to erase its slow start to the year with another win against the vaunted Dodgers.
I'm eyeing underdogs in three games on Saturday, find out which below!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Best MLB Bets for Saturday, May 11th
- Diamondbacks (+140) vs. Orioles
- Yankees vs. Rays (+105)
- Dodgers vs. Padres (+125)
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
John Means is expected to start in this one, his second start of the year after a stellar first outing of seven innings with zero earned runs and eight strikeouts.
However, Arizona is the best lineup in baseball against lefties, so I’m inclined to take the visitors at a massive underdog price, especially with Ryne Nelson due a ton of positive regression. The right hander has an ERA of 5.23, but is sitting on an xERA of 4.52.
It's also worth noting that the Orioles are hitting .222 over the last week, I'll bank on the cold streak continuing for a little longer.
PICK: Diamondbacks (+140)
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction and Pick
I’ll trust Zack Littell, who has been fantastic to start the season, to keep down the Yankees lineup.
Littlell has a 3.00 ERA, but is even better than that, posting a 2.93 xERA with an elite ability to allow soft contact thus far. He is in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and is walking only 3% of batters through seven starts.
Give me the home underdogs with a high upside to pull one over the Yankees.
PICK: Rays (+105)
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Following a walk off win on Friday night, I like the Padres to keep it rolling on Saturday against James Paxton of the Dodgers, who has been skating by in 2024.
The left hander has solid surface level metrics like a 3.06 ERA, but hasn’t been able to find his punch out pitch, posting a 12% strikeout rate with a 17% walk rate, one of the few pitchers in the big leagues walking more batters than striking him out. With the ball constantly being put in play, Paxton’s xERA sits at 5.98.
Against a Padres team that is top five in walk rate, I think this game can tilt towards San Diego quickly.
PICK: Padres (+125)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.