Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Fade Logan Webb on Friday Night)
By Reed Wallach
The Major League Baseball slate is littered with marquee matchups on Friday night, and I have a few angles I'm betting on.
After vying for a Cy Young in 2023, Logan Webb hasn't been the same pitcher in 2024. I believe he continues to be priced like last year's version of himself and not how he has pitched this season. Keep reading to find out why I'm betting on the Reds against Webb and the Giants as well as all of our best bets on Friday!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Best MLB Bets Today, May 10th
- Diamondbacks (+120) vs. Orioles
- Cardinals vs. Brewers (-135)
- Reds (+130) vs. Giants
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Arizona is the best lefty hitting lineup in the big leagues, so I’ll trust the visitors against the Orioles.
Baltimore is starting Cole Irvin, who is striking out only 16% of batters this season, meaning Arizona will have plenty of opportunities to put up runs with pitches inside the strike zone.
I'm buying the Diamondbacks offense, and the team has starter Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, who is due some positive regression. He has an ERA of 4.61 on the year, but has an xERA of 3.35 with an elite walk rate that is hovering around 3%.
Pfaadt is going to turn it around soon, and this matchup sets up nicely for a strong outing on both sides from Arizona.
PICK: Diamondbacks (+120)
Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
The Brewers will turn to lefty Ryan Gasser for his big league debut, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who are hitting .184 against left handed pitching, the worst mark in Major League Baseball.
Can Gasser make the jump right away to the big leagues? There is no better team to face given St. Louis' struggles against southpaws.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee's offense has been a pleasant surprise this season, second in OPS. At home, I'm happy to grab the team at a cheap price.
PICK: Brewers (-135)
Reds vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Logan Webb’s 2024 profile doesn’t justify this price.
Following a Cy Young worthy campaign in 2023, Webb’s velocity is down and he is striking out a career low 18% of batters while upping his walk rate from 3% last year to 6%. He has an ERA of 3.50 with an xERA of 4.73.
Webb has an xBA of .306 while Reds' starter lefty Andrew Abbot is .210 in xBA.
These are two teams going in opposite directions, I'll take a stab on the underdog in the night cap out west.
PICK: Reds (+130)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.