Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (How to Bet Saturday, April 20th on the Diamond)

Apr 19, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23)
Apr 19, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

With a full serving of Major League Baseball on Saturday, how should we bet it?

I got you covered below with my three favorite bets on the diamond for Saturday's slate, taking a crack at three home teams I believe are undervalued, including the emerging Kansas City Royals and the talented San Diego Padres, who draw a favorable pitching matchup.

Keep reading for my trio of Major League Baseball bets on Saturday:

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Best MLB Bets Today, Saturday, April 20th

  • Tigers vs. Twins ML (-135)
  • Orioles vs. Royals ML (+105)
  • Blue Jays vs. Padres ML (+100)

Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

The Twins will start struggling Bailey Ober this season, who has seen teams generate hard contact against him all season, a sharp increase from prior seasons. Per Statcast, opponents have found the barrel on Ober pitches at 20% rate this season, leading to a 6.57 ERA. However, his other metrics look just fine, he doesn’t walk batters much and has a decent strikeout rate, it’s just power hitting teams that crush him. 

Detroit has struggled all season at generating hard contact, 26th in OPS. While the Twins have plenty of concerns, I believe the hosts are being underrated with a pitcher in a position to thrive.

Give me the home starter to find his way against a struggling offense. 

PICK: Twins (-135)

Orioles vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

In a battle of two of the top pitchers in baseball this season, I’ll continue to back the underdog Royals. Corbin Burnes hasn’t missed a beat in Baltimore, pitching to a 2.28 ERA, but Cole Ragans has hit the ground running this season. 

The lefty has posted a 1.93 ERA and will face an Orioles team that is 14th in OPS when facing lefties.

Of course, Burnes is an elite pitcher in his own right, but the Royals offense has been smashing expectations in 2024, 11th in OPS. At home, the team does even better, fourth in OPS in Kansas City and I believe the home underdogs are worthy of a bet given the circumstances.

PICK: Royals (+105)

Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Jose Berrios is a prime regression candidate after a hot start to the year. He has a 1.05 ERA so far, but that’s supported by a 4.43 xERA. 

The Padres lineup has plenty of power, eighth in the league in OPS and due a ton of positive regression. The middle of the lineup for the Padres, featuring sluggers Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, each have top 20 percentile hard hit percentages, and complimentary batters like Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth are due for slugging percentage jumps, per Statcast.

This is the perfect storm for a Berrios stinker. I’ll back the Padres to hand him some hurt at the plate as small home underdogs. 

PICK: Padres (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.