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Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today, June 1st (Cardinals Highlight Live Underdogs on Saturday)

By Reed Wallach

May 26, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
May 26, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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As the calendar flips to June, teams are still being priced in the betting market on projection and what they should be, but not what they have been.

There is enough of a sample size to start going against reputation and betting into what has happened on the field, evident with the likes of the Minnesota Twins or the St. Louis Cardinals with Sonny Gray on the mound.

Here's our three best bets for Saturday's slate, all of the underdog variety.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Bets Today, June 1st

  • Twins (+110) vs. Astros
  • Reds (+120) vs. Cubs
  • Cardinals (+120) vs. Phillies

Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Framber Valdez and the Astros continue to be priced on reputation and not results. 

Valdez hasn’t been the same this season, limited by a shoulder injury and a diminished strikeout rate that is below 20% for the first time in his career. He is allowing hard contact on 50% of balls in play thus far and now faces a Twins lineup that is hitting .265 against left handed pitching. 

Meanwhile, Joe Ryan is putting up Cy Young numbers for the Twins, posting a pitch arsenal that is in the 91st percentile in terms of run value with a 2.96 ERA that is supposed to be even better in terms of batted ball variance with an xERA of 2.60. He is limiting walks to about 3% and should keep a handle on the Astros offense.

PICK: Twins (+110)

Reds vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Both offenses are really struggling, these are two of the four worst in terms of OPS in the month of May, so I need to key in on the pitching staff, which leaves me with the Reds as valuable road underdogs. 

Hunter Greene has worked in more offspeed pitches this season relative to the prior three, resulting in a slight drop in strikeout rate (down from about 30% to 26%), but better results with soft contact. Greene is in the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage and has seen his ERA drop to 3.06 with an xERA of 2.56 (93rd percentile). 

He'll be matched up against Cubs' left handed starter Justin Steele, who hasn't found his elite form from last season, posting a fastball velocity in the 22nd percentile and is failing to get swings and misses, 18th percentile in terms of whiff percentage.

Steele has positive regression coming his way, posting a 4.45 ERA with an xERA of 3.22, but I can't trust him as a home favoirte in a matchup that may rely too much on him.

PICK: Reds (+120)

Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

St. Louis is bottom three in the big leagues in OPS against left handed pitching, but I believe the Cards can come through as small underdogs with Sonny Gray on the mound. 

Gray is punching out 32% of batters, the best mark of his career, with a career best walk rate of 5.8% as well, making me confident that St. Louis can stay close to Philadelphia and be live to pull away late with a team that has been hitting the ball really well overall despite its failings against southpaws. The Cardinals are sixth in OPS in the month of May.

PICK: Cardinals (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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