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Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Kansas City Royals Continue to Be Best Bet in Baseball)

By Reed Wallach

May 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) fields the ball hit by Minnesota Twins left fielder Willi Castro (50) during the sixth inning at Target Field. Castro reached first base. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
May 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) fields the ball hit by Minnesota Twins left fielder Willi Castro (50) during the sixth inning at Target Field. Castro reached first base. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
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A loaded weekened of baseball starts on Friday night and we are looking to get it started right.

The Royals continue to outperform expectations with AL MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way and a potent pitching staff. Kansas City has been fantastic at home this season, and is in a spot to thrive again.

Here's our best bet for Friday's MLB slate:

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Bets Today, May 31st

  • Guardians (-1.5) vs. Nationals
  • Padres vs. Royals (+110)
  • Twins (-105) vs. Astros

Guardians vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Cleveland is a dangerous lineup against left handers, and the team will face one of the worst in the big leagues in Patrick Corbin. 

The Guardians are fourth in OPS against southpaws this season, and now face Corbin, who is in the bottom five percentile in the following categories: strikeout rate, fastball run value, xERA and xBA.  

Cleveland has been raking all season, and will hand the ball to starter Tanner Bibee to limit the Nats offense. Bibee is striking out north of 25% of batters with a nasty set of offspeed pitches, ranking in the 98th percentile in terms of run value.

At -104, this is a bargain for the Guardians.

PICK: Guardians -1.5 (-104)

Padres vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Dylan Cease is talented, but the Royals are an auto-bet at home, especially as underdogs. 

Kansas City, who has a capable arm in Michael Wacha on the mound Friday, are 21-8 at Kauffman Stadium this season and 12-8 as a home underdog. 

The Royals continue to be mispriced, and I'll continue to trust them at home.

PICK: Royals (+110)

Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Minnesota will hope Pablo Lopez can find his best form, and it’s coming in the near future. 

Lopez has a 5.26 ERA, but that’s supported by an xERA of 3.26 and a career best walk rate of just four percent. Lopez has been on the wrong end of batted ball variance but should turn it around soon, and I think this is an advantageous price to back Minnesota against the Astros. 

This also is a fade of the Astros pitching staff, who have the third highest ERA from the bullpen, which can spell trouble for Ronel Blanco, who is walking more than 10% of batters and can run into trouble against the Twins lineup that has drawn walks at a big league average rate in the month of May.

PICK: Twins: -105

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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