Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Keep Fading Kevin Gausman and Toronto Blue Jays)

Saturday's MLB slate presents plenty of betting opportunities, including fading some high profile pitchers.

Kevin Gausman has fallen off from his Cy Young contender level, and the slumping Blue Jays are in line to drop another game on Saturday after being nearly no hit on Friday. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks is pitching far worse than his surface level numbers suggest, and I'm happy to fade him as well on Saturday.

Here's our favorite bets for Saturday's MLB card with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best MLB Bets Today, May 18th

• Rays (+115) vs. Blue Jays
• Red Sox (-120) vs. Cardinals
• Tigers (+125) vs. Diamondbacks

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Toronto has been one of the most underwhelming teams in the big leagues this season, and Kevin Gausman is at the center of it. 

The former Cy Young contender looks anything but this season, posting a 4.95 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. With his inability to find strikeouts, his underlying metrics indicate he’s getting fairly lucky, posting an xERA of 5.56.

I’ll happily fade him on Saturday with a Rays lineup that has come alive over the last two weeks or so. Tampa Bay is hitting .244 with the 11th best OPS in the month of May.

We haven't hit the bottom with Toronto just yet, and I'll grab the plus price on the better team.

PICK: Rays (+115)

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

It’s tough to trust the Cardinals against any team at a near pick ‘em price, and even more difficult with Miles Mikolas on the mound. 

The right hander is striking out only 16% of batters and when he can punch them out, hitters are finding plenty of answers, posting an xBA of .299 and an xSLG of .500. 

Boston has been about league average this month at the plate, but the team has been strong as a unit on the mound, including starter Kutter Crawford, who is limiting damage through his elite fastball that ranks in the 97th percentile.

PICK: Red Sox (-120)

Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Jack Flaherty has been outstanding in his first season with the Tigers, posting a 3.88 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate and a 3% walk rate. He has been on the wrong side of some hitting luck, his xERA is 2.98, and I believe he can out-perform Zac Gallen on the road with his ability to overpower hitters. 

Gallen's surface level numbers look strong, he has a 2.86 ERA, but that's supported by a 3.59 xERA and a walk rate that is at its highest since 2021 (7.9%).

Further, if this game gets tight late, I'll trust Detroit, who is sixth in bullpen ERA, far better than Arizona's pen that has the sixth worst ERA as a unit.

PICK: Tigers (+115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.