Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Tigers-Royals Should Be Low-Scoring Affair)

There’s a bunch of afternoon baseball to dive into on Wednesday, May 22, and one of the best pitching matchups in the league comes in the AL Central clash between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals at 2:10 p.m. EST.

That game has one of my favorite bets to place today, but there are several different ways to wager on this MLB slate, including a No Run First Inning pick and a player prop for a young starter in the National League. 

Per usual, focusing on key pitching matchups is the name of the game for yours truly in these picks, so let’s dive into the best ones to target on Wednesday:

MLB Best Bets Today for May 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Milwaukee Brewers-Miami Marlins No Run First Inning (-150)
• Detroit Tigers-Kansas City Royals First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)
• Jared Jones OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

Milwaukee Brewers-Miami Marlins No Run First Inning (-150)

The Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins are sending their aces to the mound on Wednesday as Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the Brew Crew against lefty Jesus Luzardo.

On the season, Peralta is 8-1 when it comes to having a clean first inning, giving up just four hits in the opening frame across nine starts.

Luzardo has been even better, going a perfect 7-0 when it comes to holding his opponents scoreless in the first frame. 

This is an ideal pitching matchup for a NRFI, especially since these teams are in the middle of the pack (No. 11 and No. 13) when it comes to OPS in the opening frame. I’ll trust both pitchers to keep up their end of the bargain on Wednesday. 

Detroit Tigers-Kansas City Royals First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-120)

I mentioned that this pitching matchup was my favorite of the day – and for good reason. 

Here’s a look at the profiles of the two starters we have on the mound in Kansas City:

• Detroit: Tarik Skubal (6-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.95 FIP)
• Kansas City: Cole Ragans (3-3, 3.70 ERA, 2.58 FIP)

As you can see, both of these starters have pitched well in 2024, and Ragans appears to be due for some positive regression with a FIP over a run lower than his ERA. 

Skubal has arguably been the best starter in baseball in 2024, and he held this Kansas City team to one run across seven frames in his first outing against them this season. 

Ragans has yet to face the Tigers, but he’s allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his 10 outings in 2024. I expect this game to be low-scoring early while both of these starters go to work. 

Jared Jones OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Jared Jones has been a revelation in 2024, and he’ll look to keep that going against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night.

Jones comes into this start with a 2.89 ERA on the season, pitching six or more innings in three straight starts, including six of his nine outings on the season.

That’s what he’ll need to do on Wednesday to clear this prop, and I think he has a favorable matchup with a Giants team that ranks 16th in MLB in OPS and 18th in runs scored. 

Jones faced the Giants earlier this season, tossing five innings of three-run ball, but he’s seen the Pirates extend the leash for him in the month of May.

Jones threw just 83 pitches in that outing against San Francisco, but since then he has two starts with over 90 pitches, including a 96-pitch game on May 4. 

In fact, there is just one start this season where Jones threw 85 or more pitches and didn’t clear six innings. He threw 89 pitches and went 5.2 innings in his MLB debut. 

I expect the rookie to have a longer leash than he did the first time around with San Francisco.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.