Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Brewers as Small Underdogs)

Apr 28, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers (36) delivers a
Apr 28, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers (36) delivers a / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The weekend of baseball continues with several marquee matchups littered across the day and across Major League Baseball.

The Brewers, typically known for its pitching staff, has enjoyed a stellar start to the year at the plate, and now will hand the ball to its promising rookie Tobias Myers to out-duel the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. I have a best bet in that game as well as out west in Houston on Saturday night where the Astros look to erase a slow start with pitcher Framber Valdez toeing the rubber.

Here's three best bets for Saturday's MLB slate:

Best MLB Bets Today, May 4th

  • Brewers (+105) vs. Cubs
  • Orioles (-120) vs. Reds
  • Mariners vs. Astros (-140)

Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

I’ll take the Brewers as small underdogs, who will start Tobias Myers on Saturday. 

This matchup sets up nicely for the Brew Crew rookie, who has been elite at generating swings and misses, in the 97th percentile this season. The Cubs are bottom five in the big leagues as a team in terms of chase percentage, so I believe Milwaukee can get out to an early lead behind the arm of the promising rookie.

While the pitching matchup sets up nicely for Myers, the Milwaukee lineup should continue to thrive, where the team is third in OPS on the year. Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs, who missed the start of the year but has gotten off to a strong start, posting a 1.50 ERA in three starts. However, against a sweet swinging Brewers team, Taillon's meager 12% strikeout rate is of grave concern.

All this leads to me betting the Brewers as underdogs.

PICK: Brewers (+105)

Orioles vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Baltimore is top five in the league in OPS overall (.754), but does its best against lefties, posting the second best OPS (.825).

This is important because the Reds are set to send out Andrew Abbott on Saturday, a left handed pitcher who will likely be out-matched by the O's in the hitter friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.

The Orioles counter with John Means, a fellow southpaw, who should be in much better shape against a Reds team that is hitting only .214 agianst left handed pitching this season.

PICK: Orioles (-120)

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Seattle struggles against left handed pitching, 26th in OPS and hitting only .211 against southpaws, and I envision it continues against Framber Valdez of the Astros, who showed no signs of issues in his first start back from injury.

Valdez pitched in Mexico City against the Rockies, which was supposed to be a high scoring affair, but the left handed shut down Colorado, pitching five innings while allowing only two earned runs.

In 12 appearances against Seattle, Valdez has posted an ERA of 3.00 with 71 strikeouts, slightly ahead of Mariners starter Logan Gilbert's numbers against the Astros. Gilbert has faced Houston nine times, posting a 3.63 ERA with 45 strikeouts.

I'll side with Houston as home favorites with a favorable pitching matchup.

PICK: Astros (-140)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.