Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Max Fried Early, Bet on Pirates vs. A's)

We’re nearly through the first full month of the 2024 MLB season, and we’re starting to get to see which teams are going to compete for playoff spots and which ones may not be in the mix later on this season. 

Plus, we’ve gotten to see several turns in the rotation for each team, which should help us understand which pitchers to trust when placing MLB bets. 

I have three plays that I’m eyeing on Monday, including two starters that I believe are a little undervalued in the market.

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Here’s a look at my favorite bets for the action on Monday, April 29:

MLB Best Bets Today for April 29

• Clarke Schmidt UNDER 16.5 Outs Recorded
• Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Seattle Mariners
• Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline vs. Oakland A’s

Clarke Schmidt UNDER 16.5 Outs Recorded

New York Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt has pitched well this season (2-0, 3.55 ERA), but he’s yet to clear 5.1 innings in any of his five starts. 

The Yankees have had a relatively quick hook with Schmidt, dating back to last season, allowing him to throw over 92 pitches just once so far this season. 

The righty has struck out plenty of batters this season (29 in 25.1 innings), but it’s led to some higher pitch counts early in games. Against a tough Baltimore offense, I don’t see Schmidt having a season-long outing on Monday. 

Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Seattle Mariners

Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried is on the mound on Monday after throwing a complete-game shutout in his last outing against the Miami Marlins. 

Fried is now 2-0 on the season despite a 4.97 ERA, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (3.97) shows that he’s due for some positive regression entering this matchup with the Seattle Mariners.

The same can’t be said for Mariners starter Bryce Miller, who has a 2.22 ERA but a 4.59 FIP so far this season. The young righty lasted just four innings in his last start, and now he has to face the No. 1 offense in baseball in terms of OPS and batting average this season. 

I think the Braves get off to a strong start in this one, but I don’t want to go beyond the fifth inning since Seattle has the No. 1 bullpen ERA in the league. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline vs. Oakland A’s

I love fading the Oakland A’s (even though they’ve been better as of late), especially when they don’t have the pitching advantage. 

Oakland is sending Joe Boyle (1-4, 7.06 ERA) to the mound in this game against Pittsburgh’s Bailey Falter (2-1, 3.33 ERA). 

Falter got off to a slow start, allowing six earned runs in his season debut, but since then he’s posted four straight outings allowing two or fewer runs, giving up just 12 hits across 23.0 innings of work – posting a 1.57 ERA.

I think he can slow down this Oakland offense that ranks 28th in OPS and 29th in runs scored so far this season. 

As for Boyle, the A’s have won just one of his five starts, so I don’t mind fading them again tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.