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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Odds for Game 1 (Value on the Over in Game 1)

By Reed Wallach

May 16, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) talks to Golden
May 16, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) talks to Golden / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
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Talk about a quick turnaround.

After defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 6 on Friday night, the Memphis Grizzlies head home to face a well rested Golden State Warriors team in Game 1 of the second round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs.

The No. 2 seed Grizzlies are home underdogs in Game 1, but did win 3 of 4 against the No. 3 seed Warriors. Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before making a best bet:

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Warriors: -2 (-110)
  • Grizzlies: +2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Warriors: -130
  • Grizzlies: +110

Total: 220 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Pick

It's going to be tough sledding for the Grizzlies to show up after a taxing 6 game series against the Timberwolves and travel back to Memphis for the series opener. However, I'm not interested in laying it with the Warriors as road favorites.

I think this matchup may suit Ja Morant better after he struggled against the Timberwolves. I don't believe the Warriors are going to look to blitz him in the pick-and-roll as much and I believe Morant can get down hill more efficiently after struggling against Minnesota. The Grizzlies star 38/20/71 shooting splits in the first round. Maybe it won't manifest in the first game, but I do believe we see improved play in this round as the Warriors opt to let their perimeter defenders work outside and keep Draymond Green and other big men at the level.

Overall, the Grizzlies offense continues to struggle in the half court, but they have continued their regular season trend of cleaning the offensive glass.

After leading the league in offensive rebounding rate (33.8%) in the regular season, the Grizz hauled in north of 31% of available offensive rebounds in the first round. The Warriors struggled rebounding in the first round, posting the third lowest DREB%, down more than 8% from their regular season mark. If the Dubs can't clean the glass this can bail out a struggling Memphis offense that thrives off of transition opportunities and second chances.

The Warriors may have the rest advantage and are built for playoff basketball moreso than the upstart Grizzlies, but I like the over more in what should be an up and down affair with the Grizzlies continuing to clean the glass while the Warriors playoff best 60.8 eFG% shows up in the series opener.

LEAN: OVER 220 (-108)


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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