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Warriors vs. Jazz Prediction and Odds (Golden State Ripe to Upset Utah)

By Ben Heisler

Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have only been underdogs five times all season, going 3-2-0 ATS.
Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors have only been underdogs five times all season, going 3-2-0 ATS. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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Two of the hottest teams in the Western Conference start off the new year with a showdown in Salt Lake City when the Utah Jazz host the league-leading Golden State Warriors.

The 26-9 Jazz are on a six-game win streak, are 8-0 in the division and 16-3 in-conference. However, Quin Snyder's squad actually played much better on the road than at home this year; 14-6 in Salt Lake compared to 12-3 away.

Meanwhile, the 27-7 Warriors will still be without Draymond Green as he remains in the NBA's health and safety protocol. Golden State is also preparing for the return of shooting guard Klay Thompson over the next few games as they finally look towards the rest of 2022 with their roster at full strength..

Here are the latest odds via WynnBET:

Warriors vs. Jazz Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Warriors +4.5 (-110)
  • Jazz -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Warriors +160
  • Jazz -190

Total:

  • 222 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Jazz Prediction and Pick

It's a rare sight to see Golden State not favored, as it's only happened five times all season until tonight.

My initial thought was to lean towards the Jazz, especially without the defensive presence of Defensive Player of the Year favorite at WynnBET in Draymond Green. However, via Matthew Trebby, the Warriors' team defense doesn't actually suffer as much as one would think in the box score without Green on the court. In fact, their defensive rating WITHOUT Green is 98.2, compared to 101.9 when he's playing.

Granted it's a small sample size, but I think oddsmakers have this line slightly inflated towards Utah as a result of Green being out, but I don't think it will make as much of a difference as initially anticipated.

Golden State has also had several days off, after Thursday's game was postponed by the league. Utah, meanwhile is remaining at home, but on the second game of a back-to-back after beating the Timberwolves 120-108. The Warriors are 6-3-0 ATS when they hold the rest advantage this season.

I have this line closer to Jazz -1.5 at home, so I'll back Golden State with the points and enjoy the unique opportunity of betting the Warriors as underdogs.

PICK: Warriors +4.5 (-110)

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