Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks and Betting Preview
Thank Gamblor, the stretch of multi-course and pro-am PGA Tour events is finally over. Sure, they may be fun to watch, but they're an absolute nightmare to bet on. I've struggled with my picks since winning on Hideki Matsuyama at the Sony Open, but we're back to an event that I feel comfortable betting on, the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
As always, I'll break down the odds, how to handicap the event, and I'll give out my three outright picks to win.
Let's start off with the top 10 odds to win via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Odds to Win Waste Management Phoenix Open
- Jon Rahm +750
- Justin Thomas +1200
- Patrick Cantlay +1400
- Viktor Hovland +1600
- Hideki Matsuyama +1600
- Jordan Spieth +2000
- Xander Schauffele +2000
- Brooks Koepka +2500
- Scottie Scheffler +2500
- Daniel Berger +2800
How to Handicap TPC Scottsdale
If there's one thing that you should keep in mind about TPC Scottsdale, it's that the course punishes wayward drives. At the same time, having some distance off the tee is going to give a golfer an advantage as well. So, looking at good drivers of the golf ball, those who are both accurate and long, is a good starting point this week.
As much as driving of the golf ball increases in importance, the short game decreases in importance at this track. We've seen golfers who aren't known for their putting succeed here, guys like Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama.
According to DataGolf.com, we'll see an uptick of approach shots from the 150-200 yard range compared to the average PGA Tour event.
With all of that in mind, here are five key stats I'm eyeing this week:
Key Stats for the Waste Management Phoenix Open
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee
- Ball striking
- Approach proximity from 150-175 yards
- Approach proximity from 175-200 yards
- Strokes gained: putting
Picks to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Xander Schauffele +2000 (1 unit)
No golfer has lost me more money than Xander Schauffele, but I just can't quit betting on him. His style of play fits this course to perfection, and its shown in his results here. He's competed at the Phoenix Open in four straight years, and he's finished in the Top 20 all four times. Last year, he finished in second place to Brooks Koepka.
His biggest strength heading into this week is his iron play from 175-200 yards out, which is key at TPC Scottsdale. He ranks T7 on the PGA Tour in the stat ahead of Thursday, which makes me feel confident enough about this play to bet a unit on Schauffele to get it done.
Sam Burns +3300 (0.5 unit)
One missed cut and then everyone has seemingly forgot about Sam Burns. Before his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished in the top 20 in all seven starts, including four top fives and a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Furthermore, the weakest part of his game is chipping and putting, which can be forgiven at TPC Scottsdale. He ranks 21st in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: approach, so I think we're getting value on him at +3300.
Corey Conners +4000 (0.5 unit)
I guess this is a "play the classics" week for me, as I'm back on my favorite Canadian golfer, Corey Conners. As I said above, TPC Scottsdale is extremely forgiving when it comes to the short game, and that's exactly where Conners' weakness lies. He ranks 127th in strokes gained: around-the-green, but this is one of the few courses all year that it won't hurt him.
He's missed two straight cuts, but he has to be excited about playing a course that should play to his strengths. He finished in 17th place here last year.
Iain's Golf betting record in 2022 is 15-36-2 (-1.28units). You can find his detailed betting record here.