Wells Fargo Championship Odds and Picks (New Venue Presents Different Challenges)

Rory McIlroy is a three-time winner of the Wells Fargo Championship.
Rory McIlroy is a three-time winner of the Wells Fargo Championship. / Jared C. Tilton/GettyImages

The Wells Fargo Championship is an annual staple on the PGA Tour's schedule, but this year it has been moved to a different course. This week's tournament will be held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, due to the usual home of the event, Quail Hollow, being the host of this year's Presidents Cup.

Rory McIlroy leads the field this week, and while he's a three-time winner of the event, things will be different this time around as it's hosted at a somewhat unfamiliar course.

The last time we saw TPC Potomac on the PGA Tour was in 2017 and 2018 when it hosted the Quicken Loans National, now known as just "The National". This will give us at least some data to work with when figuring out how to handicap the event.

Let's take a look at the top 10 odds via WynnBET to win this year's edition of the Wells Fargo Championship.

Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship

  • Rory McIlroy +800
  • Corey Conners +2000
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
  • Tony Finau +2500
  • Abraham Ancer +3000
  • Keegan Bradley +3000
  • Russell Henley +3000
  • Tyrrell Hatton +3300
  • Cameron Young +3300
  • Gary Woodland +3300

How to Handicap the Wells Fargo Championship

Our main point of research for this event should be the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National. It's only two years of data, but it give us two huge notes that will be massively important this week.

Driving accuracy and approach shots form 175-200 yards are what will determine the winner this week. The fairways at TPC Potomac average only 30 yards wide, and if golfers miss both the fairway and the rough, they'll either be in a water hazard or fescue.

Also, according to DataGolf.com, 23.1% of approach shots at TPC Potomac come from between 175-200 yards, which is well above average for a PGA Tour event.

With that being said, here are the five key stats you should focus on when choosing who to bet on this week.

5 Key Stats for TPC Potomac

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Ball Striking
  • Approach Proximity from 175-200 Yards
  • Scrambling%
  • Strokes Gained: Putting

Picks to Win the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship

Corey Conners +2000

Corey Conners is about to surpass Xander Schauffele as the golfer I've bet on the most without getting a win. With that being said, nobody is expecting him get a victory this week, which means I'm more confident than ever.

If there's a course that fits his style of play, it's TPC Potomac. He's 37th in driving accuracy (not to mention sixth in strokes gained: off-the-tee), third in ball striking, 64th in approaches from 175-200 yards, 79th in scrambling, and 101st in putting, which is actually an improvement on recent years. With it being a weaker field, Conners can really take advantage and snag his second win on Tour.

Max Homa +4000

Max Homa doesn't excel in any area, but he ranks inside the top 100 in for of the five key stats. 81st in driving accuracy, T48 in ball striking, 50th in approaches from 175-200 yards out, and 59th in putting. That should be good enough for him to compete in this weaker field. He also has only missed two cuts all season and has seven top 25s, so I think he's a solid bet this week at 40/1.

Matt Kuchar +5000

You can throw a lot of his season-long stats out the window because he got off to a horrid start to his year, but he's coming off two of his strongest performances of the year. A T2 at the Valero Texas Open and a T3 at the RBC Heritage.

He's the definition of a golfer you want to back when driving accuracy is paramount. He ranks 50th on the Tour in driving accuracy, and his short game has been strong this year, ranking second in strokes gained: around-the-green and 10th in strokes gained: putting. He's worth a shot at 50/1.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.