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West Virginia vs. Minnesota Updated Prediction and Odds for Guaranteed Rate Bowl

By Reed Wallach

Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan.
Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
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Minnesota and West Virginia are set to play at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

The Golden Gophers ended the regular season on a high note by beating Wisconsin at home, but battled injuries all season long, clawing to an 8-4 record.

West Virginia put together a 6-6 season under coach Neal Brown, really struggling to sustain offense throughout the season. The team will play without their star running back Leddie Brown, who rushed for over 1,000 yards, and opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

How should we bet this Tuesday night bowl game? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

West Virginia vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • West Virginia: +5 (-110)
  • Minnesota: -5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • West Virginia: +165
  • Minnesota: -195

Total:

  • 45 (Over -110/Under -110)

Minnesota vs. West Virginia Betting Trends

  • Minnesota went 7-4-1 ATS this season
  • West Virginia failed to cover in 3 of their 4 final games
  • Minnesota covered in its last 2 games

West Virginia vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

The loss of Brown is huge for the Mountaineers, but the team leaned on the pass quite a bit this season, 93rd in rush rate this season, to minimal success. However, I expect Jarrett Doege to have a tough outing against a stingy Minnesota defense that was top 20 in defensive success rate and 25th in limiting explosive passes.

Due to injuries on offense, the Golden Gophers leaned on their run game at nauseam, ranking top five in rush rate this season. West Virginia was solid against the run this season, allowing less than four yards per carry and are 21st in tackling, per Pro Football Focus, so this may set up to be a rock fight, indicated in the total.

I don't see much value in this line and the total is too low for my liking despite both defenses in line to have solid performances.

A key metric in this one is the special teams difference, which West Virginia ranks 100th in SP+ while Minnesota is 41st. This can be the difference in a low scoring matchup.

I lean towards Minny pulling away in this one, but would rather pair them in a money line parlay with someone like Wisconsin or Tennessee to bring down the price.

PICK: Minnesota ML -195

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