Western Conference Play-In Tournament Scenarios and Odds: Who Will Earn No. 7 and No. 8 Seeds?

The Western Conference play-in tournament is going to be a wild one, as it could feature LeBron James, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant depending upon the outcome of the final games on Sunday in the NBA regular season. 

The Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings are all guaranteed to be in the play-in tournament, but their seeding could vary based on Sunday’s results.

Meanwhile the Phoenix Suns still have a shot at the No. 6 seed after narrowly beating the Kings on Friday night. They’d need to leap the New Orleans Pelicans (the current No. 6 seed) for the final spot. 

Here’s a look at the scenarios and the odds for each Western Conference play-in tournament spot: 

Western Conference No. 6 and No. 7 Seed Scenario

The only teams that can end up in the No. 6 spot are the Suns and Pelicans, and the way things happen in that race are pretty simple:

Phoenix Earns the No. 6 Seed if…

• The Suns beat the Timberwolves on Sunday and the Pelicans lose to the Lakers

New Orleans Earns the No. 6 Seed if… 

• The Pelicans beat the Lakers
• The Suns lose to the Timberwolves
• The Pelicans lose to the Lakers and the Suns lose to the Timberwolves

Whichever of these teams ends up in the No. 6 spot, the other will get the No. 7 and home-court advantage in the play-in tournament. 

Western Conference No. 8 Seed Scenario

The Lakers currently hold the No. 8 seed, but they could easily fall out of it – if they lose – on Sunday. 

Lakers earn the No. 8 seed if… 

• They beat the Pelicans on Sunday

Kings earn the No. 8 seed if… 

• They beat the Portland Trail Blazers and the Lakers lose to the Pelicans

Warriors earn the No. 8 seed if… 

• They beat the Utah Jazz and both the Kings and Lakers lose

Sacramento holds the season-long tiebreaker over Los Angeles after sweeping it during the regular season, and the Warriors (3-1 against the Lakers) also hold the tiebreaker over the Lakers. That’s big for our next scenario… 

Western Conference Teams That Could Earn No. 9 and No. 10 Seeds

Any team of the Warriors, Lakers and Kings could end up in the No. 10 spot.

Here’s what you need to know:

• The Kings have the tiebreaker over both the Warriors and Lakers
• The Lakers do not have a tiebreaker over either team
• The Warriors have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, but not the Kings

This means that if Los Angeles loses and both the Warriors and Kings win, they’d each move up a spot (Kings to No. 8, Warriors to No. 9) in the standings. 

Here’s a look at some different scenarios for the No. 9 seed: 

• The Lakers are the No. 9 seed if they lose, the Warriors lose and the Kings win
• The Warriors are the No. 9 seed if they win, the Kings lose and the Lakers win
• The Kings are the No. 9 seed if they win, the Warriors win and the Lakers win
• The Kings are also the No. 9 seed if they win, the Warriors lose and the Lakers win

Here’s a look at some different scenarios for the No. 10 seed: 

• The Lakers are the No. 10 seed if they lose, the Kings win and the Warriors win
• The Kings are the No. 10 seed if they lose, and the Warriors win
• The Warriors are the No. 10 seed if they lose
• The Warriors are also the No. 10 seed if all three teams win

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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