Western Kentucky vs. Louisville Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, December 14 (Will Cardinals Ever Cover, Or Win?)
By Ben Heisler
To all the Louisville fans out there, I promise you, it gets better.
The once proud program is in the midst of a complete and total rebuild, similar to what I experienced as a junior at Indiana University back in 2008. Tom Crean had taken over for Kelvin Sampson after multiple NCAA violations (sending text messages to recruits, believe it or not). The Hoosiers went 6-25 that year, including 1-17 in the Big Ten.
The Cardinals are still in search of both their first victory, as well as their first cover against the spread of the season, as Kenny Payne's team welcomes fellow Bluegrass state school Western Kentucky to the Yum Center tonight.
WKU is 8-1 on the season, and are a sizable favorite on the road. Can this be the game Louisville finally hits against the number?
Here are the latest odds, along with a betting pick for tonight's action:
Western Kentucky vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total
Western Kentucky vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick
As tempted as I am to consider Louisville in a slightly inflated line, I just can't pull the trigger. The Cardinals simply been too awful, and haven't been able to close the gap in just about every game they've played since the middle of November.
Louisville has started 0-9 straight up AND against the spread.
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) December 14, 2022
The Cardinals are +7.5 at home tonight to Western Kentucky at @CaesarsSports.
Western Kentucky has nearly three times as much money as any other CBB team to cover and 91.6% of the $ for all spread bets in this game.
The Cardinals lost their first three games at home, all by one point to Bellarmine, Wright State and Appalachian State this season. Then, the schedule became incredibly daunting, taking on Arkansas, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Maryland, Miami and then most recently Florida State. Only the Seminoles rank outside of the top 75 KenPom-rated teams in college basketball, so it's not too surprising to see blowouts in every game.
The Hilltoppers have a lot going for them this season. They're a fantastic 3-point shooting team, hitting 39.6% from downtown which puts them 19th in college basketball, and they also take quality shots from the floor, ranked 58th this season in effective field goal percentage (EFG %).
To Louisville's credit, even though its adjusted offensive efficiency numbers are in the bottom 50 of the NCAA, they at least put in the effort defensively. Louisville has done a very good job this year of taking away second-chance rebounding opportunities for teams, ranking 57th in the country in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.
KenPom projects this to be a 3-point WKU win, and with it being potentially close towards the end, I expect both teams to run more half-court offense, and even go to the line, which has been a struggle for both teams, but especially the Hilltoppers, who shoot just over 66% from the charity stripe.
The slowed down pace late, along with some missed shots down the stretch leads me to take the under, rather than on a side.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.