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WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Odds and Picks: Past Winners Provide Value at TPC Southwind

By Iain MacMillan

Dustin Johnson has won twice at TPC Southwind in his career.
Dustin Johnson has won twice at TPC Southwind in his career. / Andy Lyons/Getty Images
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The golf world was treated to a fantastic Olympic golf tournament last week (the women’s edition is set to tee-off on Wednesday) that boasted one of the better final rounds you’ll ever watch in the sport.

It’s following up with another no-cut, smaller field event with this week’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The event will once again be hosted at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.

Justin Thomas won the event last year, and Brooks Koepka won it the year prior. Strong play tee-to-green has been awarded with finishes near the top of the leaderboard, so expect more of the same this week.

Odds to Win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

The 2019 winner Brooks Koepka is set as the betting favorite, but there’s a flurry of golfers right behind him on the odds list. Being a WGC event, the best golfers in the world will be competing this week.

Here are the top 15 golfers on the odds list at WynnBET to win this week’s tournament.

  • Brooks Koepka +1200
  • Collin Morikawa +1300
  • Xander Schauffele +1400
  • Jordan Spieth +1500
  • Justin Thomas +1700
  • Dustin Johnson +1750
  • Rory McIlroy +2000
  • Daniel Berger +2200
  • Louis Oosthuizen +2200
  • Patrick Cantlay +2500
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2500
  • Viktor Hovland +2500
  • Paul Casey +3000
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +3000
  • Hideki Matsuyama +3000

How to handicap TPC Southwind

Like many TPC courses, TPC Southwind has a lack of character. Outside of some water hazards off the tee, and some interestingly placed bunkers, there’s not much to look for in this Memphis course.

Strokes gained: tee-to-green has been key for golfers in years past. Putting, not so much. In fact, Justin Thomas won this event last year despite gaining negative strokes with his putter. But also, golfers can win with fantastic putting performances like Brooks Koepka did in 2019.

The key stats for this week are mostly revolving around good driving and strong ball striking. Don’t forget to also consider past performances at this track.

Five key stats for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational:

  • Strokes gained: off-the-tee
  • Strokes gained: approach the green
  • Ball Striking
  • Scrambling percentage
  • Strokes gained: Putting

Picks to win the WGC-FedEX St. Jude Invitational

Dustin Johnson +1750

Dustin Johnson is in “must bet” territory this week at +1750 based on how he’s performed at this course alone. In seven starts at TPC Southwind (not including a withdraw in 2015), DJ hasn’t finished worse than 24th. He’s also won twice, including his latest in 2018.

Johnson stumbled in the spring and early parts of the summer, but has recently shown flashes of life with his play. He finished T8 at the Open Championship and T19 at the US Open. He’s also a great driver of the golf ball, ranking 21st in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 18th in strokes gained: tee-to-green.

Daniel Berger +2200

It’s time to go back to betting on one of my favorite golfers on Tour. Daniel continues to quietly be one of the best golfers in the world that nobody really talks about. He finished T7 at the US Open in June, and T8 at the Open Championship last month. He also has two wins and a second place finish in only four starts at TPC Southwind, which is completely insane in the best way possible.

He ranks 14th in both strokes gained: approach the green and total strokes gained this season. He presents amazing value at +2200 this week.

Cameron Champ +10000

I feel morally obligated to once again bet on Champ after he cashed for me at +10000 in his last start at the 3M Open. Now he’s playing in a much stronger field, but his odds are listed at the same number.

We know how dominant he is off the tee (7th in SG: OTT) and TPC Southwind is another course much like TPC Twin Cities that rewards strong driving ability. His biggest downfall was always his putter, but he led the field in putting in his win two weeks ago.

If he can recreate that magic, why not take another shot at him at 100/1? After all, I think I owe him one for giving me my biggest golf win of my career.

The odds listed in this breakdown are available over at WynnBET. Make your pick.

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