WGC Match Play Bracket Breakdown and Best Bets

Sep 24, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Team USA golfer Kevin Kisner hits a shot on the 11th
Sep 24, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Team USA golfer Kevin Kisner hits a shot on the 11th / Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

The PGA Tour's version of March Madness is here; WGC Dell Match Play.

It's the only match play event on the PGA Tour's schedule and it consists of a round robin of match play round, followed by a 16-man knockout-style bracket. Outside of the four major tournaments, it's my favorite event to bet on of the year.

If you want my best bets to win the whole thing, check out my predictions article here.

In this piece, I'm going to give you a few plays to win some of the round-robin groups. Let's take a look at the bracket and then I'll dive into them.

March Madness bracket predictions

All odds below are via BetMGM Sportsbook.

Group 4 Winner - Patrick Cantlay +110

Patrick Cantlay has sneakily had a strong season so far in 2023, despite not getting a win. Most importantly, he ranks second in birdie average, which is extremely important in Match Play.

He has an 8-4-2 record in match play in his career, and he has an extremely winnable group. None of K.H. Lee, Nick Taylor, or Brian Harman should make him too nervous as he attempts to advance to the knockout stage.

Group 5 Winner - Kevin Kisner +500

Kevin Kisner hasn't had a great season, there's no denying that, but he is the king of this event and has dominated it throughout the years. Just last season, he finished in second place to Scottie Scheffler. He also won the event in 2019.

Kisner has a career match play record of 22-7-2, and he has gone 13-2 in his last 15 match play rounds. That type of history makes him irresistible to take a shot on him at +500 to once again win his group.

Group 6 Winner - Tom Hoge +275

It may surprise you, but it's Tom Hoge who leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach this season. He also enters the event ranking eighth in birdie average.

Austin Country Club is famous for not penalizing golfers who don't have much distance off the tee, which is music to Hoge's ears. Just look at Kisner's past success at this course for proof that accuracy off the tee is much more important than distance. That leave's Hoge in a good spot and I think he can win his group this week.

Group 9 Winner - Jason Day +210

Jason Day has been red hot lately. He has six straight top 20 finishes on the PGA Tour, and has gained strokes putting in all six of those starts.

Day presents some more betting value than the top seed in the group, Collin Morikawa, due to Morikawa's streaky putting and inconsistent play this season.

Group 10 Winner - Christiaan Bezuidenhout +350

Christiaan Bezuidenhout thrives at courses where his lack of driving distance won't hurt him. For an example of that, just look at his latest start at the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass where he posted a T13 finish.

Also, it's worth noting that fading Tony Finau has been a profitable strategy at this event in the past. He has failed to advance to the knockout stage in all three previous appearances, and is just 6-7-2 in match play in his career.

Group 15 Winner - Corey Conners +225

If you're looking to back golfers who have previously had success at this event, consider betting on Corey Conners to win Group 15 over the likes of Cameron young, Sepp Straka, and Davis Thompson.

Conners finished in third place at last year's event and has gone 6-1 in his last seven match play rounds.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.