What Should Oddsmakers "Actually" Set Derrick Henry’s Rushing Yards Prop at vs. Chiefs

Before we start, I have a confession to make. My name is Matt and I hard-faded Derrick Henry last week against the Bills. Boy, was I wrong about that one. I was all over him to fail to hit 100-yards for his fifth straight game and bet under 99-yards total on the best in the game. I played myself. 

When I was finished yelling at the TV after Henry ripped a 76-yard run in the first quarter, I got to thinking. What should his rushing yard props be set at? Certainly not at 99. First, let’s look at where the oddsmakers set Henry’s odds for the first six weeks and what the results were. 

• Week 1 vs Arizona: O/U 102.5 - Under
• Week 2 vs Seahawks O/U 84.5 - Over
• Week 3 vs Indianapolis O/U 103.5 - Over
• Week 4 vs New York Jets O/U 120.5 - Over
• Week 5 vs Jacksonville O/U 117 - Over
• Week 6 vs Buffalo O/U 99 - Over
• Week 7 vs Chiefs  O/U 126.5 - TBD

As we can see, aside from Week 1, Henry has crushed his betting totals in every single game. Does this mean that the oddsmakers are not given Henry enough love? Or is he just that good that he continues to exceed even unreasonable expectations at times? I think it is more the latter, but a mix of both. It is hard to comprehend that a guy can continue to succeed week after week without even a hiccup. 

And that brings me back to the Bills game last week. That was the game that should have been the hiccup for Henry. The Bills are a top-ranked defense all around, but specialize in stopping the run. I figured Tannehill and the offense would need to be slinging bombs all night just to keep up. Alas, I was wrong and Henry managed 143 yards and three freaking touchdowns. It wasn’t even his best game of the season. Not even second best. 

So, moving forward, how should oddsmakers set odds for this guy? I guess the easy answer would be higher. Henry is averaging 130.5 yards per game. If you exclude his 58-yard season debut, that number jumps to 145. So, is that where his number needs to be this week against the Chiefs? If he is averaging that number it would be a fair-ish target to look at. I think that number would be scary to post on both sides of the counter. But it might be closer to right than the odds he has been getting. Considering the Chiefs have the 30th ranked run defense in the league, 126.5 yards almost feels low for Henry this week.