What We Learned as College Football Bettors in Week 10 for Week 11

Every week we learn something new. The sad thing is we usually learn from our failures. 

That’s life. And that’s life for a college football bettor.

We’re easily distracted, focusing on bright and shiny objects like Alabama’s lofty spread over LSU, or Kentucky’s AP Poll ranking. Let’s not get distracted in Week 11.

So, what did we learn in Week 10 of the College Football season?

Beware the Purdue “Spoilermakers”

Purdue is only 5-4 against the spread this season. That’s not amazing by any stretch, but they have defeated conference rivals then No. 2 Iowa, Nebraska, and No. 3 Michigan State in three of the last four weeks.

In Week 11, the Purdue Boilermakers will face the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, and Purdue is facing a 20-point spread. 

Every team that faces the Boilermakers is buying aspirin in bulk to deal with the annoying headaches that Purdue is going to give them. A defense that is allowing just 18.4 points per game and a quarterback in Aidan O’Connell that just threw for 536 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s frustrating.

Also, Ohio State has the 95th-ranked passing defense in College Football and could struggle mightily with the O’Connell-David Bell connection; David Bell is probably the best wide receiver in College Football right now.

Keep your eye on Purdue.

Ignore the AP Poll Rankings

In Week 10, North Carolina defeated No. 9 Wake Forest, Illinois defeated No. 20 Minnesota, Purdue defeated No. 3 Michigan State, TCU defeated No. 12 Baylor, Arkansas defeated No. 17 Mississippi State, Tennessee defeated No. 18 Kentucky, and Boise State defeated No. 23 Fresno State.

That’s a lot.

These numbers are borderline meaningless and have more to do with team pride than team ability. 

Don’t let these numbers sway your opinion on the outcome for any wagers you place.

Look for Values in the Pre-Saturday Schedule

Last week, six out of eight underdogs covered on the spread in the games that kicked off prior to Saturday. Five of the underdogs won straight up. 

There are nine games to be played from Tuesday through Friday, and I’m not saying you should back all of the underdogs, just saying that on a short week, some of these teams may not be coming in ready to play. 

Western Michigan has a lofty -26.5 point spread on WynnBET Sportsbook, and many of the MAC games have been wild. Kent State has solid value on the moneyline at +130 against Central Michigan on Wednesday, as does Northern Illinois (+105) against Ball State. 

Thursday has just one matchup, Pittsburgh facing North Carolina. Pitt is a -6.5 point favorite in a potential shootout with an over/under set at 74. 

Cincinnati is a 23.5-point favorite against South Florida on Friday, but can they cover the spread? Cincy is 9-0 this year, but only 5-4 against the spread.

Saturday is for College Football, but Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday could be the best time to strike for College Football value bets.