What We Learned as NFL Bettors in Week 7

When Patrick Mahomes lays flat, so does the Chiefs offense.
When Patrick Mahomes lays flat, so does the Chiefs offense. / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not win and lose, it’s win and learn. 

There have been some surprising outcomes in the first seven weeks of this NFL season, like the Arizona Cardinals going undefeated, and some non-surprising outcomes, like the Detroit Lions being completely defeated.

It’s been a fun season, but what did we learn specifically from Week 7?

It’s Time to Start Fading the Kansas City Chiefs

It’s really hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and this electric Chiefs offense. But, that defense is borderline disgusting. 

Kansas City has now allowed 27 or more points in six of its first seven games. That’s becoming a bettor’s nightmare. Even more of a nightmare when Patrick Mahomes under-performs and even worse when he leaves a game early due to injury. Ugh.

Mahomes turned the ball over twice on Sunday and failed to score a single touchdown. It was the first game that Mahomes failed to score a touchdown since Week 4 of the 2019 season. 

The Chiefs were 4.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday and lost 27-3.

It’s starting to get ugly in KC.

We Must Continue Fading the New York Jets

Just like success in sports, success occurs in sports betting when you stick with the fundamentals. Continue fading the New York Jets.

The Jets were a 7-point underdog to the New England Patriots in Week 7, and missed covering the spread by a mile; losing 54-13. 

New York is awful, and we all know it, but the Jets continue to find ways to hurt sports bettors. They’ll trick you with a win over a decent team like the Titans, and someone out there is going to get cute and bet on the Jets at +7.

Don't get cute.

Stop doing that to yourself and stick to the fundamentals. Fade the Jets!

The Cincinnati Bengals are a Threat to Win It All

Am I jumping the gun a bit by saying the Bengals have a shot at winning Super Bowl 56?


After their 5-2 start, Cincinnati has a top-10 offense that is averaging 27 points per game and a top-10 defense that is allowing just 18.3 points per game. The last time I checked, a good offense and a good defense makes a good football team. 

The Bengals only have two losses this season, and each are by just three points. Cincinnati should be 6-1 if not for that overtime loss against Green Bay where kickers Mason Crosby and Evan McPherson appeared to have some kind of side contest to see who could shank more kicks.

After destroying the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7, 41-17, the Bengals sit at +3000 to win Super Bowl 56 on WynnBET Sportsbook. That is looking like a pretty good value. 

Let’s apply what we learned in Week 7 for more successful betting in Week 8 and beyond.

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