What We Learned as NFL Bettors in Week 8 to Take into Week 9

Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush not only covered the spread again for Dallas to remain perfect, but the Cowboys won vs. the Vikings outright!
Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush not only covered the spread again for Dallas to remain perfect, but the Cowboys won vs. the Vikings outright! / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8 in the NFL is now fully in the books with the Chiefs getting back on track; winning 20-17 against the Giants on Monday Night Football.

The Chiefs' win is their fourth of the season, with three of them coming against NFC East opponents.

Despite the victory, the Chiefs failed to cover yet again on a 10.5-point spread. The public backed KC with 64% of the tickets along with 81% of the money at WynnBET.

Despite Kansas City entering the week just 2-5 ATS, with both wins coming on the road vs. inferior NFC teams like the Eagles and Washington Football Team, the Chiefs entered Week 9 as 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Packers. This despite seeing the Chiefs fall out of the top spot in Super Bowl futures and division odds.

That's now changed, as updated odds now have the Packers as 1-point road favorites over KC.

Besides the drastic shift in the line, here are three things to take away as bettors heading into the Week 9 slate.

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The Cowboys Refuse to Lose Against the Spread

For anyone who has spent the last two-plus years betting and following the Chiefs, I assure you, there will be a point where this madness will stop. However, if you had bet on the Cowboys against the spread in all seven of their games this season, you'd be a perfect 7-0. That's remarkable considering how public of a team Dallas tends to be amongst bettors.

In fact, Dallas was the worst team in the NFL ATS last season, going 5-11-0 on the number. They'll host the Denver Broncos on Sunday as 9.5-point favorites at Jerry World. More on Denver in a moment...

Underdogs Got Back on Track

For the first time since Week 3, underdogs got back in the win column; not just ATS, but straight up as well.

As Bearman mentioned above, underdogs this week went 9-4-1 against the spread, including 8-6 straight up in head-to-head matchups. Two of the biggest surprises this week included the New York Jets stunning the top seeded Cincinnati Bengals at home, as well as the Dallas Cowboys moving from favorites to underdogs without Dak Prescott; beating the Vikings on the road on Sunday Night Football.

Are there any double-digit underdogs that could make it back-to-back weeks with a win in Week 9? Right now at WynnBET, the Colts are 10-point home favorites vs. the Jets on Thursday Night Football, the Bills are 14-point road favorites in Jacksonville against the Jaguars, and there's a good chance the Cowboys could move to double digits if Prescott is the confirmed starter against Denver. With how New York won on Sunday relative to how Indianapolis fell apart, I don't know how shocked I would be if the Jets pulled off another upset on a short week.

Titans vs. Rams is a Classic Overreaction Line

Both Tennessee and Los Angeles were a major part of Monday's news cycle for bettors. The Titans are likely putting Derrick Henry on injured reserve following the news that he will undergo foot surgery and will be out an undetermined amount of time.

Meanwhile, the Rams added another huge piece to their defense with the trade for 8-time Pro Bowler Von Miller from the Broncos for two Day 2 picks in 2022. He'll now join Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey as one of the most formidable units in the NFL got even better.

It's no surprise that we've seen the line on this game move as much as we have. After opening at Rams -6 at home, the line has soared to -7.5 and could climb even higher as the week goes on.

This feels like a classic overreaction to the news and to the market. The Titans have won their last two games where Henry was a bit of a non-factor. Over his last two games, Henry has rushed 57 times for 154 yards for an average of 2.7 yards a carry and no touchdowns. Their defense is still a work in progress, but they can still hang around with the Rams, especially if you're getting 7 and the hook on the road for a first place 6-2 team.