Where Can We Find Betting Value in Finals MVP? (Bet Jrue Holiday in Hopes of Celtics NBA Finals Winning Sweep)
While nothing is set in stone, it appears that the Boston Celtics are well on the way to a comfortable series win over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, listed as -950 favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook to win its series against the Dallas Mavericks.
Betting on the outcome of the series itself may no longer hold much intrigue, but there's one market that's still wide open: Finals MVP.
When a game or series is a runaway, it's hard to identify whose performance was the most valuable. While close contests often yield predictable MVPs, think LeBron James in the 2016 NBA Finals blowouts often see things get random, like Andre Iguodala in the 2015 edition.
This year looks like it's falling into the latter category with Boston leading two games to zero.
With different players pitching in to the all around good of the Celtics team, lets take stock in the merits of each player. First, here are the odds for Finals MVP.
2024 NBA Finals MVP Odds
- Jayson Tatum: +140
- Jaylen Brown: +155
- Jrue Holiday: +600
- Luka Doncic: +650
- Derrick White: +5000
- Kristaps Porzingis: +5000
How Many Celtics are Contending for Finals MVP?
The odds on favorite entering the series, Jayson Tatum has played good all-around basketball but his shooting and scoring have been well below-standard, shooting just 31% from the field for 17 points per game. Jaylen Brown is much more efficient, shooting 55% from the field while averaging 21 points per game but isn't stuffing the stat sheet like Tatum, who has had a double double in both games.
Then, you have the standout performers from each game. Kristaps Porzingis returned from injury in Game 1 magnificent fashion with 20 points on great shooting numbers in game one, but was much quieter the next time out while also possible reaggravating his calf injury, failing to close out the Game 2 win.
In Game 2, Jrue Holiday was the top scorer with 26 points in game two, but was coming off of a very nondescript Game 1.
Finals MVP Best Bet
So, who exactly is going to be named Finals MVP?
Let's first go through the most plausible door; the one where the Celtics finish this off in four or perhaps five games. Tatum is still the favorite for this award at, and the lack of a strong current frontrunner means he could certainly surge back to the top with a more prolific next couple of games. but it's hard to find value in implied odds of nearly 42% given his inefficient shooting.
Instead, let's look at Holiday, with +600 odds. He has some positive momentum after game two, and he's more likely than the possibly limited Porzingis to get enough minutes to keep putting up big performances.
Additionally, let's look back to some previous surprise winners; Kawhi Leonard in 2014 and Andre Iguodala in 2015.
Leonard is a star now, but had averaged a then-career-high 12.8 points in the regular season, was named a second-team All-Defensive honoree for the first time, and averaged around 14 points in the postseason; the narrative was that he stifled LeBron for five games and helped his team to win. His scoring picked up over the final three games, but he scored nine points in each of the first two games that series.
Iguodala won with a similar narrative. He only started three games and scored 20+ points twice in the finals, while finishing in single digits once, but his work against James and overall contributions to the Warriors' brand of team basketball earned him the award. Holiday has done something similar; slowed down the prolific Dallas backcourt, namely Kyrie Irving, and given the Celtics the space they needed to win games without dominating offensively, as the Mavericks have yet to crack 100 points in a game this. series.
Holiday also has that signature Game 2 performance, and with one more high-scoring game, could see his odds shorten tremendously.
The longer the series goes, the more likely it is that Tatum reasserts himself as the sole contender, but if it gets done in short order, his scoring drought could be remembered as his contribution to half of the series' games, and cost him the award; Holiday bettors definitely want this to be a sweep. Luckily for them, it very well could be.
Now for the other, far-less likely outcome. If the Mavericks do come back to win the series, by winning four of the next five games, Luka Doncic is absolutely winning Finals MVP.
He has produced statistically even in the pair of losses thus far, with 30+ points in each game and a triple-double in the first. As poorly as Irving has played in those contests, an unlikely comeback win would certainly mean an individual honor for the team's biggest star.
However, the +650 odds for Doncic are probably too short to reflect Dallas's potential to make this a series, so the best value is probably on Holiday, while Tatum's status as favorite is most likely a good decision by the sportsbook.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.