It's a Trap: Which MLB Odds Are Most Deceiving for Tuesday, May 17?

Setting lines isn’t easy. There are so many factors that go into predicting the outcome of a game that I couldn't begin to get into them here. All that is to say that sometimes the bookies get it wrong.

Let’s look at two games that I think could be considered “traps" to the betting public. Or, perhaps the oddsmakers are on the wrong side of today.

All odds used are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Toronto Blue Jays -143 vs. Seattle Mariners

This game can be summed up as an underperforming offense going up against a streaking starter. While the Blue Jays are 19-17 and third in the AL East, they are not being helped along by their bats. Toronto ranks 15th in batting average (.235), 22nd in runs per game (3.78), and 28th in walk rate (7.3%).  Because of this, the Blue Jays are 2-6 straight up in their last eight games and scored three runs or less in five of their six losses. 

Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert gets the start today for Seattle. Gilbert showed a ton of promise last season as a rookie and has only built upon that solid base. Gilbert enters this game with a 4-1, 2.13 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP. I’ll admit he didn’t look great on Wednesday against the Phillies, but Gilbert is a stud and I expect him to bounce back against a strong Dodgers lineup. It will be the first time this year that the Blue Jays have seen Gilbert. 

Another factor I like in this game is Jose Berrios. Not that I like him to succeed. It’s that I like him to help us cash in on the Mariners as underdogs. Berrios is a solid pitcher but has not enjoyed much luck this year. He has a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 34 innings so far this year. This is a great spot to fade him and the Blue Jays. 

Los Angeles Dodgers -190 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Game 2 Doubleheader)

The Diamondbacks remain one of the more confusing teams. They appear to be terrible, yet keep winning games. They enter Tuesday at an even 18-18, and already took one series from the Dodgers this year; proving to be a very pesky team. 

Tonight, I do worry a bit about Arizona’s starter Merrill Kelly, but I still want to grab this underdog value. I wrote yesterday that I don’t particularly trust Kelly despite his 1.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Those figures just don’t line up with his career numbers at all. However, I did all of this thinking before the Dodgers announced that Tyler Anderson would pitch tonight. I trust him even less. 

Anderson enters this game with a 4.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP which are right around his career averages. But, he’s been regressing as the season goes and his ERA has risen from 2.55 in late May almost two full points to where it is now. I think at these odds the Dodgers are a poor bet.

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE