Which NFL Teams Are Best and Worst Against the Spread Through Week 11?

Here's a fun exercise for bettors.

Let's say you bet on the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys, two of the most heavily-public teams in the NFL each week through Week 10. $50 each game at -110 odds.

Turns out that you'd be up $672.65 so far this year, totaling out a payout of $1,522.65 heading into Week 11 of the season! A $50 bet at -110 odds wins $45.45 for an overall payout of $95.45.

Both the Packers and Cowboys lead the NFL in wins against the spread (ATS) this season. Since starting off 0-1 ATS in a blowout 38-3 road loss to the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay has rattled off eight consecutive covers, despite mixing in a loss on the road to the Chiefs in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have also lost twice this year, but have also only lost a total of one time ATS.

Here are the top five teams in the NFL this season, along with their overall betting record.

Best NFL Teams vs. the Spread in 2021

• Green Bay Packers: 9-1-0 ATS | 8-2 W/L
• Dallas Cowboys: 8-1-0 ATS | 7-2 W/L
• Arizona Cardinals: 7-3-0 ATS | 8-2 W/L
• Tennessee Titans: 7-3-0 ATS | 8-2 W/L
• Buffalo Bills: 5-3-1 ATS | 6-3 W/L

For the most part, the top teams in the league have also been amongst the best in covering as well. However, several notable playoff contending teams like the L.A. Rams (7-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), Baltimore Ravens (6-3), and Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) have all struggled to win their number consistently.

Here are those teams' records ATS.

• Los Angeles Rams: 4-6-0
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-6-0
• Baltimore Ravens: 3-6-0
• Kansas City: 3-7-0

Worst NFL Teams vs. the Spread in 2021

Interestingly enough, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Kansas City, along with Pittsburgh and San Francisco (all but SF are winning teams) have the second-worst ATS record in the NFL. The other two with worse ATS records are the New York Jets and Washington Football Team.

Here are the bottom five teams in the league against the number so far this season.

• Washington Football Team: 2-7-0 ATS | 3-6 W/L
• New York Jets: 2-7-0 ATS | 2-7 W/L
• Kansas City Chiefs: 3-6-0 ATS | 6-4 W/L
• Baltimore Ravens: 3-6-0 ATS | 6-3 W/L
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-6-0 ATS | 6-3 W/L

Should Bettors Keep Tailing and/or Fading These Teams ATS?

History would indicate that over the second half of the season, the sportsbooks adjust, making it more challenging for bettors to continue to hit on teams like Dallas and Green Bay, as well as fading the Jets and the Football Team.

Last year, the Miami Dolphins covered 68.8% of their games, going 11-5-0 against the spread. The second best team was Buffalo at 12-7-0 (includes postseason), followed by Green Bay and Baltimore (11-7-0).

The year before, Kansas City covered a remarkable 72.2% of their games ATS, going 13-5-1. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2016 to find a team that lost less than five games against the number. The New England Patriots went a remarkable 16-3-0 ATS that season, covering an astounding 84.2% of their games.

As well as Green Bay and Dallas have played, history is a strong indicator to watch out for inflated lines down the second half of the season.