MLB Picks

White Sox vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Sunday, October 2 (Total Too Low Despite Solid Pitching Matchup)

Ben Heisler
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell has been dominant over his last three starts; going 19 innings with 26 strikeouts.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell has been dominant over his last three starts; going 19 innings with 26 strikeouts. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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The Chicago White Sox have four more games to attempt to finish 2022 with a winning record as they sit at 78-80 on the season.

Later today, they wrap up their series in San Diego vs. the Padres as the Friars look to increase their lead on the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers in the NL wild card race.

Blake Snell gets the ball for the Padres and he's been dominant down the stretch of the season.

Meanwhile, Lance Lynn gets the start for the White Sox, and has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 19 hits in 11 innings; while giving up 10 runs (seven earned).

Here are the latest odds from Petco Park:

White Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

White Sox vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

It's an awfully low total for a gorgeous day in San Diego with Lynn's ongoing struggles for Chicago. He's given up a lot of hard contact of late, and a ton of hits. Factor in the Padres' ranking fourth in the National League in on-base percentage and that doesn't set up well for the South Siders on the road.

However, Chicago continues to hit the ball very well vs. left-handed pitching, even in the midst of an incredibly disappointing season. The White Sox own the second-best batting average (.275) vs. lefties, and rank second in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), third in weighted-on-base-average (wOBA), and third in on-base-plus-slugging (OPS).

Snell's been dominant with strikeouts this year, but Chicago also doesn't swing-and-miss too often vs. southpaws, ranked sixth in all of baseball at 19.9%.

Between Lynn's inconsistencies, and Chicago's success vs. lefties, I think we see a few more runs than the oddsmakers expect.

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