Who Does KenPom Predict Will Win the 2022 NCAA Tournament?
By Joe Summers
This KenPom guy is pretty good. If you're unfamiliar with his work, Ken Pomeroy is the creator of the predictive college basketball website and statistical archive KenPom.com. His rankings are widely regarded among the industry's best and he's helped usher in a new era of evaluating college basketball through advanced analytics.
Last year, Gonzaga and Baylor were the top two teams in his power rankings and went on to meet in the championship game. The year before, Kansas and Gonzaga were at the top before the season was canceled and both looked like they'd make a deep run. In 2019, he had eventual champion Virginia as his No. 1 team and their championship opponent, Michigan, at No. 6. In 2018, Villanova was his No. 1 squad and they won it all.
The examples continue as you go through the years, but the point is simple: KenPom's best teams go far.
So who does KenPom's rankings have as the best teams in college basketball as we head into the NCAA Tournament?
Who Does KenPom Predict Will Win it All?
Gonzaga is KenPom's No. 1 team this year by a wide margin. Their adjusted efficiency margin (an estimate of performance against an average team) of +32.97 laps the field, and the margin between them and No. 2 Arizona (+27.21) is larger than the margin between Arizona No. 14 Purdue (+22.29).
The Bulldogs (of Gonzaga) have the best offense and the 7th-ranked defense per KenPom, and are clearly the best team. In fact, this is the largest gap between No. 1 and No. 2 in the 20-year history of his database.
WynnBET Sportsbook has Gonzaga's odds at +325 to win the National Championship and they are well worth a bet, but here's a look at the other teams in KenPom's top 10. One of these teams will win the title, it's just a matter of figuring out who:
- 1. Gonzaga (+32.97 adjusted efficiency margin)
- 2. Arizona (+27.21)
- 3. Kentucky (+26.59)
- 4. Houston (+26.50)
- 5. Baylor (+26.32)
- 6. Kansas (+25.49)
- 7. Tennessee (+25.24)
- 8. UCLA (+24.85)
- 9. Texas Tech (+24.64)
- 10. Auburn (+24.45)
If you just use KenPom's rankings to set your Final Four, you'd be looking at Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, and Kansas, with Gonzaga and Arizona meeting in the championship.
Keep an eye on Houston though. The Cougars are the No. 5 seed in the South Region and would take on Arizona in the Sweet 16. Bettors looking for an alternative to the Wildcats would be wise to consider Kelvin Sampson's group as an alternative.
It's Gonzaga's tournament to lose. They're the heavy favorite in KenPom's rankings and should be penciled in to the Final Four in your bracket.
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