Why the Astros are an Under Bettor's Best Friend

We need to talk about the surest bet in MLB: the under in Houston Astros' games.

After last night's 3-1 final against Oakland, the under is now 38-12 (76%) on the year when the Astros play. Over the last two weeks? It's 12-1.

We've seen profitable trends throughout the season like fading the Reds early, backing the Mets recently, or taking the over in Red Sox matchups. Over time though, these trends typically balance out. However, I believe that betting the under in Astros' games will continue to be profitable for the rest of the summer.

Why the Astros & Unders Are a Perfect Match

When I check out the odds at WynnBET Sportsbook each morning, I immediately look to see if Houston is playing. Their profile as a team fits perfectly with under bets, but why?

Pitching Staff

Houston's pitching staff leads the American League in ERA (2.86) and has the best home ERA (2.24) in MLB. Their rotation is loaded. Just look at this group:

• Justin Verlander: 6-2 - 2.03 ERA - 57.2 Innings Pitched (IP) - 55 strikeouts - .188 opponent batting average

• Cristian Javier: 3-2 - 2.41 ERA - 41.0 IP - 52 strikeouts - .199 opponent batting average

• Framber Valdez: 5-2 - 2.57 ERA - 63.0 IP - 50 strikeouts - .214 opponent batting average

• Luis Garcia: 3-3 - 3.14 ERA - 48.2 IP - 51 strikeouts - .204 opponent batting average

• Jose Urquidy: 4-2 - 4.80 ERA - 45.0 IP - 34 strikeouts - .330 opponent batting average

Sure, Urquidy is having a rough year, but otherwise this crew is sensational. And Lance McCullers Jr. could be back as soon as this month, so we may not even have to worry about Urquidy for long.

Verlander is the favorite at WynnBET to win the American League Cy Young award (+375) and between him, Javier, Valdez, and Garcia, the Astros have four starters who can be trusted to shut opposing lineups down. Even Urquidy has a 1.47 ERA at home.

As that group wasn't enough, Ryan Pressly, Hector Norris, Rafael Montero & Ryan Stanek lead a bullpen that has by far the lowest ERA in baseball. In fact, the gap in bullpen ERA between the Astros (2.48) and No. 2 Detroit (2.91) is larger than the gap between Detroit and No. 8 Atlanta (3.33).

With one of if not the best rotations in MLB, along with the best bullpen, Houston's pitching staff keeps playing their part in giving the under value.

Defense

If our goal is to prevent runs and win under bets, do you know what pairs well with the best pitching staff in baseball? The best defense in baseball.

Per Baseball Savant, the Astros lead MLB in defensive runs prevented. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña and center fielder Jose Siri lead the American League in outs above average at their respective positions, and Houston's defense is littered with rangy defenders at important positions.

The Astros should remain among the league's best at preventing runs, helping under bettors along the way.

Lineup

There's no denying Houston's lineup is dangerous. With Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and company, the Astros are near the top of the leaderboard in most major hitting categories.

But they're also streaky and have struggled with situational hitting.

In their last dozen games, the Astros scored two or fewer runs eight times. They had a similar stretch at the beginning of May, when they managed at least four runs just twice in nine games.

Houston ranks 25th in MLB in batting average with runners in scoring position. That ranking will likely improve over time, but their approach in these situations is something to monitor. We may see the occasional blow-up game when their batters are all in sync, but their poor streaks will be a cash cow for under bettors.

Outlook

Put the pieces of the puzzle together and the Astros just fit with unders. Their elite pitching staff, versatile defense, and streaky lineup have made the under a money bet whenever Houston plays.

The next time you put your bet slip together at WynnBET Sportsbook, don't forget the surest bet in baseball.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.