Why I'm Betting the Bucks to Win the 2022 NBA Championship

The NBA Futures market is so volatile, as injuries, or a trade, can really dictate whether or not a team is a true contender throughout the season. 

Normally, I like to stay away from betting on a team to win the NBA Finals unless I feel there is some serious value, and I actually hadn’t placed a futures bet for the NBA champion until yesterday night. 

So, I’d like to inform the people that I am taking the Milwaukee Bucks (+600 to win the title at WynnBET) to repeat as NBA champions this season. 

Do with that information what you must. 

Our own Donnavan Smoot broke down on the Bet & Breakfast podcast why the Bucks were his favorite futures bet on Monday, and I decided to tail his logic for a few reasons when looking at the NBA’s top contenders. 

Bucks Are Healthiest Team Among Top Contenders

My rationale for this pick is pretty simple, as the Bucks have Jrue Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton all healthy as we enter the stretch run of the NBA season. 

Sure, Pat Connaughton and Brook Lopez are out of the lineup, but there’s a chance both players return by the postseason and the Bucks found a Lopez replacement in Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline. 

I don’t love that the Bucks traded away Donte DiVicenzo, as their guard depth is lacking, but it may not matter in the playoffs with Holiday and Middleton playing major minutes. 

As for the other teams that I would consider contenders, there are major uncertainties on the roster, whether it be new additions or injuries, going forward: 

• Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green is still out with an injury
• Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul may miss the rest of the regular season with a broken thumb
• Brooklyn Nets: Kevin Durant, Joe Harris and Ben Simmons are out for now, Kyrie Irving still can’t play home games
• Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are all still out
• Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler have played less than 25 games together this season
• Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden has yet to play with his new team

These are just a few of the concerns I have with some of the other top teams, and while the Bucks have their own problems, it doesn’t concern their Big 3. Milwaukee won the title last season with a similar roster, so why can’t it do it again? 

Milwaukee’s Tough Schedule Could Be a Positive

The Bucks are currently the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are just 2.5 games out of the No. 1 seed. 

Despite that, the Bucks have the hardest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon, but I think it presents a unique opportunity. 

The Chicago Bulls are one of the teams ahead of the Bucks, and the two teams still have three games against each other on the schedule. Milwaukee could make a serious jump in the standings by handling business in those games, and it will also get another look at the Miami Heat down the stretch of this season.

In addition, the Bucks will get to face the Suns, who will likely be without Chris Paul, making their tough schedule not as bad as it may seem. 

This isn’t going to be a cakewalk for Milwaukee, but it could be a much-needed tune up for another NBA Finals run. 

Milwaukee Has Done This Before

It’s hard to go back-to-back in any sport, but we’ve seen the Miami Heat, and Golden State Warriors do it recently, and we know the Bucks have what it takes to win a title. 

Durability will be key for Milwaukee, but this team is constructed very similarly to the team that won the Finals in 2021. 

At +600, the Bucks present some value and a lot of the qualities that I’m looking for in my NBA Finals pick.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.