Why I'm Betting the Mavericks to Win the Western Conference

Everyone is talking about the Phoenix Suns' league leading record, or the red hot Memphis Grizzlies who are still thriving without Ja Morant, but what about Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks?

Doncic was the preseason betting favorite over at WynnBET Sportsbook for NBA MVP, but he arrived to training camp out of shape and the team stumbled out of the gate under first year head coach Jason Kidd. However, the team has reinvented themselves around strong defensive principles and by trading poor fit Kristaps Porzingis for another strong ball handler in Spencer Dinwiddie to ease the workload for Doncic.

Now, the Mavs are top 3 in the West and primed to breakthrough in a crowded playoff picture.

Before I harp on Dallas' budding two-way prowess, let's look at the current odds to win the Western Conference.

Odds to Win the Western Conference

• Phoenix Suns: +120
• Golden State Warriors: +275
• Memphis Grizzlies: +600
• Utah Jazz: +800
• Denver Nuggets: +1200
• Dallas Mavericks: +1200

Since the trade deadline when the Mavericks sent Porzingis to Washington for Dinwiddie and floor spacing forward Davis Bertans, the team is tied for the third most wins in the NBA, behind the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics.

Overachieving Grizzlies or Rounding into Form Mavs?

While many put the Mavs behind the Grizzlies, who have an overachieving star guard in Ja Morant, Dallas beat the Southwest Division winners three straight times after losing the first meeting between the two. The optics around the two are quite interesting as the Grizz played well above expectation all season and have rallied around the young core coach Taylor Jenkins has headed up.

On the other side of the coin, Doncic and the Mavs had lofty goals ahead of the season but started slow so his MVP caniddacy was rendered dead on arrival and many wrote off Dallas in the West. However, we have seen the team transform into an elite defensive unit, fourth best defensive rating since the calendar flipped to January, and has seen the emergence of several complimentary players.

Jalen Brunson has been a fantastic secondary ball handler around Doncic, who has continued to thrive with Dinwiddie joining, forming a trio of ball handlers to spread the wealth. Dorain Finney-Smith is the team's defensive ace and now Josh Green has begun to see more playing time and taking advantage of it, playing 4 more minutes per game since the All-Star break and shooting over 40% from 3 on more than a pair of attempts per game.

After the past two seasons saw Doncic play at an unsustainable rate in the postseason, this iteration of the Mavs haven't dipped too much with the Slovenian on the bench. The offense has slipped about 3 points per 100 possession this season with Doncic off the floor, but Brunson and now Dinwiddie can keep the offense humming during the postseason and allow the superstar work off the ball as well. This team is more versatile than in the past.

Again, the Grizzlies have the better record and the two seem to be on a collision course for the second round (more on that in a bit), but given the proven playoff performer in Doncic, who has went toe-to-toe with the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George before, it's hard not to trust him over the upstart Grizz that I'm selling in the Futures market after a strong regular season, but still a bit limited on playoff success.

Western Conference Playoff Picture

If the regular season ended on Wednesday, the Mavericks would be the No. 3 seed in the West, pitting them against the Utah Jazz, who have dropped five straight games. Questions have circled around the Jazz all season, who have been victim to several playoff collapses in recent history and may be in line for an early exit as the team battles internal turmoil and a regressing defense (18th in DRTG since January 1st).

If Dallas navigates the first round, a matchup against Memphis (which I mentioned should be a favorable matchup for them given this season's success and playoff pedigree) or Denver awaits. The Nuggets may have the likely NBA MVP in Nikola Jokic, but is 16-24 against teams over .500 this season and may not get back Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr. this season.

On the other side, the two favorites to come out of the West in the Suns and Warriors are on path to face in the second round. By putting off a matchup against these two until the Western Conference, you are getting a favorable price on the Mavericks.

Sure, Dallas will be underdogs agaisnt those two, but with a +1200 ticket in your pocket and a bracket that plays out nicely, you can find hedging opportunities or possibly injury developments later on.

Dallas is the Best Value on the Board to Win the West

I noted about the Mavericks likely biggest threat to getting to the WCF in Memphis at length, but I also mentioned issues with the Jazz and Nuggets, who are both struggling heading into the postseason. Utah is on a bit of a skid and Denver appears to not have the manpower to make a deep run.

As for Phoenix and Golden State (or either Los Angeles team for that matter), injuries happen and there is no denying that Doncic has the ability to take over a series himself. He had the undermanned Mavericks on the brink of an upset of the Clippers in back-to-back seasons. This team is better and things are breaking their way ahead of the postseason.

Of course, a lot of this hinges on the Mavs grabbing the third slot and avoiding the Suns side of the bracket. The team is a game up on the Warriors, who are still without Steph Curry, and own the tiebreaker. With the second easiest schedule remaining according to Tankathon, I believe the Mavericks can maintain the third seed.

Overall, Dallas is wrongfully lumped into a class with the Jazz and Nuggets due to the season long narrative, but the truth of the matter is, Dallas has been elite for sometime with a superstar guard, it's time to start taking them seriously.

Get all of our best bets for the Final Four below on BetSided's Best Bets!

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!