Why the Canadiens Continue to Dominate as Underdogs in NHL Playoffs

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals is tonight, and the series is between two teams that couldn’t be more opposite.

On one side is the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are the defending Stanley Cup Champions and were a popular pick to win it all at the beginning of the postseason. They play a fast-paced, explosive, offensive style of hockey that’s fun to watch.

The other team is the Montreal Canadiens, who had the worst regular season record out of all playoff teams at 24-21-11. They also play a much more defensive style of hockey, that prioritizes limiting high danger opportunities over a fast break style of play. While the results of the games have usually been exciting down the wire, hockey purists would argue that it’s not an exciting style of hockey to watch.

Oddsmakers also seem to believe that this series will be one-sided, as they have the Lightning set as -290 (bet $290 to profit $100) favorites to win the Cup over the Canadiens (+245).

The same is true for the Game 1 odds on Monday night, as Tampa Bay is set as a -200 favorite at home with Montreal set as a +182 road underdog. The total for the game is set at 5 goals.

Allow me to put all my bias as a Maple Leafs fan aside, and let you know that the Canadiens may not win the Cup, but betting on them game by game will likely be a profitable strategy.

I’m on record saying that the Canadiens were one of the most underrated teams in the NHL playoffs, and it was largely due to their terrible 4-11 record in games that went to overtime this season which caused them to leave a lot of points on the table.

Many hockey nerds are familiar with the advanced statistic called CORSI%, and it’s one of the more polarizing stats among hockey bettors. If you’re not familiar with it, it is defined as “an advanced statistic used in the game of ice hockey to measure shot attempt differential while at even strength play. This includes shots on goal, missed shots on goal, and blocked shot attempts towards the opposition's net minus the same shot attempts directed at your own team's net.”

Whether you believe the statistic is a true indicator of a team’s ability or not, the fact remains that at the end of the regular season, the Canadiens ranked second in the NHL in 5v5 CORSI% behind only the Colorado Avalanche, who finished with the best record in the league.

As I mentioned, the Canadiens don’t play the most exciting style of hockey, but it’s extremely effective especially in a postseason atmosphere. If a comparison to football helps, imagine the Canadiens are a team like the 1985 Chicago Bears, albeit maybe not quite to that level of success. They play good defense, run the ball, don’t make any fundamental mistakes, and they capitalize on any opportunities their opponents give them.

A perfect example to prove my case is their overtime record. As I mentioned, they were an abysmal 4-11 in overtime in the regular season, but in the playoffs they’re 5-1 in overtime. Why? Well because regular season overtime periods consist of 3-on-3 play which highly favors the wide open, offensive teams, but hurts fundamentally defensive teams like the Canadiens. In the playoffs, overtime remains 5-on-5, which helps the Habs tremendously.

Can the Canadiens slow down arguably the best offensive team in hockey? That remains to be seen. But don’t let their regular season record continue to persuade you away from betting on them. They’re 9-5 in the playoffs as an underdog and they’re well worth a shot at +185 in Game 1 tonight.