Betsided

Wild vs. Jets Prediction and Odds (Minnesota Isn't as Hot as You Think)

By Iain MacMillan

The Jets and Wild are set to face-off in Tuesday night NHL action.
The Jets and Wild are set to face-off in Tuesday night NHL action. / Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

No NHL team was hotter heading into the All-Star break than the Minnesota Wild. Winners of their last six games, including a 9-0-1 record in their last 10, the Wild will try to pick up right where they left off when they hit the road to take on the Winnipeg Jets tonight.

The Jets have some work to do to climb back into the playoff picture. They went 2-6-2 in their last 10 games before the break, but still have time to go on a run to make the postseason.

The Wild won both previous meetings between these teams this season. Stealing a 6-5 overtime victory in October, and following it up with a 7-1 demolishing in November.

Here are the odds via WynnBET for tonight's Central Division showdown.

Wild vs. Jets Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Wild -142
  • Jets +122

Puck line:

  • Wild -1.5 (+165)
  • Jets +1.5 (-200)

Total:

  • 6 (Over -120/Under +100)

Wild vs. Jets Betting Trends

  • Wild are 8-2 in last 10 games vs. Jets
  • Wild are 5-1 in last six road games.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times Wild played in Winnipeg.
  • The OVER is 8-0 in the Jets' last eight home games.
  • Jets are 1-7 in their last eight games.

Wild vs. Jets Prediction and Pick

Despite being the hottest team in the NHL from a win/loss standpoint, the Wild have been vastly outplaying their ability in recent weeks. Look no further than the advanced analytic called "expected goals per 60 minutes" or "xGF/60". Over their last 25 games, the Wild's xGF/60 is 2.82. Their actual goals per 60 minutes is 3.99. That means they're scoring 1.17 more goals per game than they should, whether it be due to particularily sharp shooting, or facing poor goaltender play.

Other advanced analytics back up this claim, as the Wild are just 19th in the NHL in CORSI% over their last 25 games, compared to the Jets who rank 13th in that stat.

I'm a big fan of zagging when everyone else zigs, and I think this is a good spot to fade the narrative about the Wild and bet on the Jets as home underdogs.

Pick: Jets +122

Iain is 23-19-1 (+3.16 units) with his NHL picks in 2022. You can see his detailed record here.