Will Patrick Mahomes Dominate Steelers Again?

Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass
Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs start their quest for a third straight AFC Championship at home against Pittsburgh Steelers.

These two teams met three weeks ago in Kansas City with the Chiefs winning 36-10 behind a sterling performance from Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs quarterback completed 23 of 30 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. Can he be in for another big outing in the Wild Card game? Here are his player props from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes Player Props

  • Passing Touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
  • Passing Attempts: 37.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
  • Pass Completions: 24.5 (Over -135/Under -105)
  • Passing Yards 279.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Game Script Dictates Limited Passes

With the Chiefs laying a massive number against the Steelers, the expectation is that they will be playing from ahead for most of the game.

If the game follows a similar path as the Week 16 matchup, and there is little reason to believe it will be different given the Chiefs are healthier than they were in that matchup, Kansas City should have a ground based approach after they build a lead.

Mahomes threw 30 passes in that game with KC out in front from the jump and I believe this prop is focusing on his season average and not the likely game script.

With that being said, I do see Mahomes clearing his pass completion prop. While I don't see many passes, this line is implying that he completes 61% of his passes. As I noted, he had a 76% completion percentage in the prior matchup. The Steelers are bottom half in the league in pressure rate this season and I believe he will have plenty of time to find the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for easy catches.

As for passing yards, I don't see much betting value in the number. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is dominant and can carve up a Steelers defense that has thrived on turnovers this season, but if the team gets ahead they can try and take this game to the ground and prepare for the AFC Divisional Round.