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Wings vs. Sun Prediction and Odds for WNBA Playoffs First Round (Can Dallas Upset Connecticut Without Ogunbowale?)

By Ben Heisler

The Dallas Wings won't have star guard Arike Ogunbowale available for their first round series vs. the Connecticut Sun due to a core injury.
The Dallas Wings won't have star guard Arike Ogunbowale available for their first round series vs. the Connecticut Sun due to a core injury. / WNBA Media
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Three teams in the WNBA this season finished with a winning record against the 3-seeded Connecticut Sun. The No. 1 and 2 seeded Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky, and their first round opponent, the No. 6 seed Dallas Wings.

Dallas went 2-1 both straight up, as well as against the spread (ATS) in the three meetings between these teams this year, taking its lone game at home, and splitting the series in Connecticut.

One slight issue ahead of Game 1? The Wings had All-Star guard Arike Ogunbowale available in all three of those previous games. She'll be out for at least the first round as she recovers from an iliac crest core muscle avulsion repair, or in Layman's terms; a core muscle injury.

Both teams finished in the top four for most wins in the second half of the season, but can Dallas overcome the loss of its best player, or at least cover a near double-digit spread on the road?

Here are the odds for Game 1 from Mohegan Sun Arena over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Wings vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Wings +9.5 (-110)
  • Sun -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Wings +425
  • Sun -575

Total:

  • 163 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Wings vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

So far, the underdogs have been the story in the first round, and if Ogunbowale was playing, I'd be intrigued to back another one in Dallas on the road. No team has been better covering the number away from home than the Wings; going 12-5-1 ATS in 2022.

However, I think I need to see this matchup play out before I consider a side, so I'll look to a specific first half total instead.

In the second half of the season, the Wings ranked second in first half offensive rating while the Sun were just a tick below in third. Without Ogunbowale, Dallas actually took over as the top WNBA offensive efficiency team in the league during that four-game stretch. Those numbers may be skewed slightly by their 116-88 win over the disinterested L.A. Sparks, but their offense showed they can hang with most of the top teams in the league.

Connecticut also picks up its offensive game more-so at home, and is a little more willing to push pace. Ultimately, I anticipate a more up-tempo, back-and-forth first half, before the top net-rated team in the WNBA settles down and begins to lock in defensively at home against a short-handed Dallas team.

PICK: 1H OVER 81.5 (-110)

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