Winthrop vs. Auburn Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, November 15 (Tigers' Smothering Defense Too Much)
By Joe Summers
No. 15 Auburn (2-0) looks to continue a strong start to the season against Winthrop (2-1) after easily dismantling its first two opponents. Averaging 18 points per game so far, Wendell Green seems to have taken a step forward as the Tigers' leader.
Winthrop is shaky defensively, as evidenced by allowing 93 points to Penn State, and struggles on the glass. Auburn is a massive favorite for a reason, but the Eagles are an impressive 9-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games dating back to last year.
Can the Tigers' strong start continue or will Winthrop's offense allow it to keep up? Let's check out the latest odds before jumping into my favorite bet for the matchup.
Winthrop vs. Auburn Odds, Spread and Total
This total is way too high for an offense as bad as Winthrop's against a defense as good as Auburn's. The UNDER hit in both of the Tigers' first two games of the year, and I expect that streak to hit three tonight.
Winthrop shoots well, but has a 23.9% turnover percentage (301st nationally) and a pathetic 9.1% offensive rebounding percentage. If the Eagles aren't draining shots, they won't give themselves extra chances to find points.
The 2022 iteration of Auburn appears to be a grinding team that shoots poorly but plays stellar defense. Auburn has just a 40.2% effective field goal percentage (315th nationally) while shooting 18% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are sure to improve with a larger sample size, but it carries over from what we saw last year out of lead guards Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson: inefficient play.
The Eagles' defense is terrible, but I don't think the Tigers' offense is in sync enough to take advantage. On the other end, though, Auburn is smothering opponents. The Tigers force turnovers on over 25% of their opponent's possessions while allowing a 40.3% effective field goal percentage.
In what's likely to be a blowout, we don't need to worry about late free throws driving the score up. Look for the under to stay unbeaten in Auburn's matchups this year as the Tigers' defense overwhelms Winthrop.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.