Wisconsin vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4

How to handicap this Big Ten opener on Friday night

Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) passes the ball during the NCAA football game
Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) passes the ball during the NCAA football game / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA

Purdue couldn't get the job done at home against Syracuse on Saturday night, while Wisconsin overcame a slow start to beat Georgia Southern by a wide margin.

The two will meet in West Lafayette on Friday night in each team's Big Ten opener. Both squads have had some setbacks early in the year, Purdue's defense has been the cause for two losses while Wisconsin's offense is still looking to find its groove after some slow starts.

Tanner Mordecai has had some big second half plays with the Badgers, but can he put together a full 60 and get Wisconsin an opening Big Ten win a road favorite?

Here are the odds and everything you need to know for this Friday night matchup:

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Wisconsin vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Purdue vs. Wisconsin Betting Trends

  • Wisconsin covered last week by a half-point, its first of the season
  • Purdue is 1-2 against the spread (ATS)
  • Both teams have gone OVER in one game, UNDER in two straight

Wisconsin vs. Purdue How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, September 22nd
  • Game Time: 7 PM EST
  • Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): Fox Sports 1
  • Wisconsin Record: 2-1
  • Purdue Record: 1-2

Purdue vs. Wisconsin Key Players to Watch


Hudson Card: Graham Harrell's offense is always going to be pass-happy, but the team has no choice. The Boilermakers are outside the top 100 in success rate on the ground, putting a ton of pressure on Card to perform, which he has done to date. The Texas transfer has completed 65% of his passes with three touchdowns through the air as the team is 29th in EPA/Play.


Tanner Mordecai: Wisconsin has tried to change its scheme this season, but it has ended up leaning on the ground game in order to knock off opponents. The Badgers are top 20 in EPA/Rush with both Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi averaging over six yards per carry, but it's because the passing game isn't clicking. Mordecai has two passing touchdowns with two interceptions and the team is outside the top 90 in EPA/Pass. However, he can get it going against a Purdue defense that is 97th in EPA/Pass.

Wisconsin vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Wisconsin has had slow starts this season, averaging only 10 points through three games, but has been able to turn it up in the second half. This will be a tough road environment in Big Ten play, but I believe the offense is in a good spot to push around this Purdue defense.

The Boilermakers are national average defense, 63rd in success rate, but the team has struggled to limit chunk plays, allowing nearly six yards per play and teams to push the ball down the field (below average in yards per pass allowed).

However, Wisconsin's defense doesn't look as sturdy as it was in recent years. The team is outside the top 100 in success rate this season and should've allowed more points to the likes of Georgia Southern last week if not for five interceptions. Card is a polished passer who has done a decent job of keeping the Boilermakers on schedule this season as the team has been forced into a ton of passing downs.

Both teams are playing faster than the national average this season, and I believe that each team can move the ball nicely in this Big Ten opener. I think Wisconsin's offense is better than the product it has shown so far, but it's defense may be ripe for a setback.

I'll go OVER on Friday's matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!