WM Phoenix Open Picks (Tony Finau Underrated at TPC Scottsdale)

Tony Finau plays his shot from the first tee.
Tony Finau plays his shot from the first tee. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the PGA Tour already being a few months into the new season, many people hold the belief that the WM Phoenix Open on Super Bowl weekend signifies the true start to the season.

It's time for the best golfers in the world to wrap up their "offseason" and get back to competing on a regular basis, and this week's event is one of the most fun to watch of the season.

Let's dive into the event, starting off with a look at the odds to win via BetMGM Sportsbook, and then I'll let you know of my three bet bets.

Odds to Win WM Phoenix Open

WM Phoenix Open Best Bet to Win

Tony Finau to Win +2000

Tony Finau is tied for the sixth shortest odds to win the WM Phoenix Open, and I don't agree with that. If I were setting the odds, I'd slot him in right behind Rahm, Rory, and Scheffler. So, with that being said, I think there's great value on him at +2000.

Heading into the event, Finau is second on Tour in total strokes gained, and first amongst all golfers who have played more than one event. At TPC Scottsdale, you need to be great off the tee and have a dialed in approach game. Well, Finay ranks 13th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and ninth in strokes gained: approach.

Toss in the fact that he's eighth in putting and he has quietly been playing some of the best golf of his career.

Finau has got rid of the title of choker over the past six months. He won in back-to-back starts in July of last year, and then followed it up with a win at the Houston Open in November.

To cap things off, Finau finished in second place at the Phoenix Open back in 2020, so he has proven he knows how to compete at this event. He's my favorite bet on the board to win this week.

WM Phoenix Open Top 10 Bet

Corey Conners Top 10 +500

Corey Conners is already having a classic Corey Conners type of season. He has been great off the tee and with his approach game, but his putting has been horrendous. Still, I'm sticking with my philosophy that it's better to bet on good ball strikers and hope they have a good tournament putting, than to bet on good putters and hope they have a good tournament with their ball striking.

It's worth noting that Conners is at his best when he has shot approach shots, ranking 15th in proximity with shots from 125-150 yards away, which is a key metric for TPC Scottsdale.

He has also had solid results in his three times competing at this event, making the cut all three times and finishing in 17th in 2020-21. I think he's worth a shot to finish in the top 10 at +500.

WM Phoenix Open Top 40 bet

Garrick Higgo Top 40 +150

Garrick Higgo has quietly played some solid golf in 2023, racking up two top 20 finish in three events. He also has a solid showing at last year's Phoenix Open, boasting a 21st place finish.

He's solid off-the-tee and with his approach game, ranking inside the top 100 in both, but much like Conners, has struggled with his putting at times. That problem may have been fixed recently, as he has gained strokes on the field with his flat stick in two of the last three events, including gaining +0.61 strokes on the field with it at last week's Pebble Beach pro am.

He's a solid bet at +150 to finish inside the top 40 this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.