WNBA Championship odds: Bet Liberty after Winning Commissioner's Cup?

The 2023 WNBA season is entering its final stretch before the playoffs, with the New York Liberty taking home the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup on Tuesday. 

There are just four teams anova .500 in the entire league this season, mainly because the Las Vegas Aces (27-3), Liberty (24-6) and Connecticut Sun (21-9) have dominated the rest of the competition. 

If we’re being honest, those three teams are far and away the best bets to win it all, as the rest of the “contenders” are all hovering around .500 with obvious holes in their rosters. 

The Aces, who are still a perfect 15-0 at home in the regular season and 15-1 in the Western Conference, were assumed to be runaway favorites, but that has changed a bit with the Liberty beating them twice in their last two meetings. 

Still, Vegas is the odds on favorite to win the title, and with stars like A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and others leading the way, it makes sense. 

But from a betting perspective, is there a better position to take in the futures market rather than laying the juice with the Aces?

This past month has shown us that there is… 

Odds to win the WNBA Finals in 2023

New York Liberty are best bet to win the WNBA Finals

The New York Liberty are +240 at FanDuel Sportsbook (Bet $10 to profit $24) to win the WNBA Finals and that’s a bargain. 

New York has not only beat the Aces twice this season, it has handled them easily this month, winning by 19 and 38 in their two meetings. 

The Liberty – unlike the Sun (unfortunately for Connecticut fans) – actually have the star power to compete with the Aces. 

Breanna Stewart is the favorite to win the league’s MVP award, and Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney are all averaging double figures this season. 

The Liberty rank No. 2 to the Aces in just about every key statistic, and they’ve shown up in the meetings against Vegas. 

Offensive Rating

• Liberty: 108.5 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 114.3 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Defensive Rating

• Liberty: 99.4 (No. 3 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 96.7 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Net Rating

• Liberty: 9.2 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 17.6 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Pace

• Liberty: 96.85 (No. 7 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 98.72 (No. 2 in the WNBA)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

• Liberty: 53.7% (No. 2 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 56.4% (No. 1 in the WNBA)

3-Point Percentage

• Liberty: 38.0% (No. 2 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 38.9% (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Rebounding Percentage

• Liberty: 53.1 (No. 2 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 50.4 % (No. 4 in the WNBA)

Turnovers Per Game

• Liberty: 14.6 (No. 7 in the WNBA)
• Aces: 11.8 (No. 1 in the WNBA)

Yes, the Aces have the edge in most of these categories, but let’s not forget that the team is without Candace Parker due to a fractured foot. 

That’s a major blow to the team, which doesn’t have a very deep bench. If there’s one knock on the Aces, it is that the team is very top heavy. 

The Liberty are built in a similar manner, but they started this season a little slower, as the team needed time to gel. Adding Stewart and Jones to the roster wasn’t going to make things easy on Ionescu and Laney right away, as they had to all adjust their roles from the previous season. 

New York is peaking at the right time, winning six straight games and nine of its last 10. 

After dominating the Aces twice in a row, I believe the team should be much closer in the odds, rather than sitting back at +240. 

If we’re looking for value on a team that actually can win it all, New York is a no-brainer bet.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.