WNBA Power Rankings Based on Odds (Can Bettors Trust Sparks to Make Playoff Run Without Liz Cambage?)
By Ben Heisler
It may be a dangerous exercise to publish this week's WNBA Power Rankings before the Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky play for the 2022 WNBA's Commissioner's Cup in Chicago tonight, but waiting until these two meet for the third time to decide would be too easy!
As bettors, it's in our best interest to obtain as much information as possible, so we can be ahead of the move in the lines. With a two-game sample already played between these two top squads, we can make an informed decision on how to evaluate the two best teams in the league.
Before diving into this week's Power Rankings, let's first re-visit the latest odds to win the 2022 WNBA Championship over at WynnBET, as well as follow-up on where they were as of July 12; our most recent rankings.
WNBA Championship Odds
- Las Vegas Aces +200 (+140)
- Chicago Sky +200 (+275)
- Seattle Storm +425 (+400)
- Connecticut Sun +475 (+550)
- Washington Mystics +1000 (+1500)
- Atlanta Dream +6000 (+10000)
- Minnesota Lynx +8000 (+5000)
- Dallas Wings +10000 (+8000)
- Los Angeles Sparks +10000 (+6000)
- New York Liberty +10000 (+6000)
- Phoenix Mercury +10000 (+10000)
- Indiana Fever +50000 (+30000)
WNBA Power Rankings (Week of July 26 - August 1, 2022)
1. Chicago Sky (21-7) +200 (Remain at No. 1)
The Sky and Aces both have gone 5-1 since the break, and while Las Vegas has better overall numbers in their wins, I'm backing Chicago to take home the Commissioner's Cup this evening to give it a 2-1 series lead.
The Sky fell to a struggling Liberty team on the road in their last game, but it was also on the second night of a back-to-back and Candace Parker rimmed out what would have been the game-winning easy bucket by the basket. I won't hold that against them.
2. Las Vegas Aces (20-8) +200 (Remain at No. 2)
After going 5-5 down the final stretch of the first half, Las Vegas looks revitalized. Since July 10, the Aces lead the WNBA in both offensive rating and net rating; pushing the pace with the best assist-turnover ratio in the league.
A'ja Wilson continues to remain in MVP conversation; averaging 19.4 points and 9.7 boards per game.
3. Connecticut Sun (19-9) +475 (Up from No. 4)
The Sun have moved up to third after a blistering start to the second half. Their only loss came to the Aces after blowing a short halftime lead to lose 91-83.
Connecticut has the second-best net rating since the break behind only Las Vegas.
4. Seattle Storm (18-10) +425 (Down from No. 3)
The Storm meet up with the aforementioned Sun in Connecticut in a nationally televised game on Thursday night. They bounced back from a brutal blowout loss to the Mercury late last week with a 10-point win at home vs. Atlanta, but Seattle still has too many bad losses on its resume for the talent on the roster.
5. Washington Mystics (17-11) +1500 (Remain at No. 5)
Washington at least remains consistent; coming in at No. 5 for the third straight time.
The Mystics still play the best defense in the league, but their offense continues to fluctuate as they also own the least number of possessions per 40 minutes. They're in every game because of their commitment on defense, but if they go cold offensively, it doesn't matter too much.
6. Phoenix Mercury (12-16) +10000 (Up from No. 11)
Are the Mercury making a late run for the final playoff spot after a disastrous first half? Or is it due to their largest home stand of the season?
Either way, Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi are keeping them afloat; especially at home where they're 8-5 this year.
7. Atlanta Dream (12-16) +6000 (Up from No. 9)
The Dream, like the Mystics, can hang with almost every team in the league because of their defense, but their offense without a consistent Rhyne Howard is a mess.
After shutting down the Aces in their own building; limiting them to just 76 points, they dropped two straight in Los Angeles and Seattle.
8. Dallas Wings (12-16) +10000 (Up from No. 10)
The Wings keep winning vs. teams they should beat, and keep falling apart to better teams. They kept both their home-and-home games vs. the Sky within a few possessions most of the way until blowing it late, but got past Indiana and Minnesota over the last week.
Arike Ogunbowale and Teaira McCowan continue to play well, and Allisha Gray can help provide a spark, but they need to start holding leads and getting quality wins vs. good opponents to move up and earn that final playoff birth.
9. Minnesota Lynx (10-19) +8000 (Down from No. 6)
After the Lynx looked like they were back in the playoff mix following a horrendous start, they've since stumbled; losing their last three games. Granted, both losses came against top-5 teams in Connecticut and Washington, but Minnesota can ill-afford more losses at 10-19 with the playoffs inching closer.
10. New York Liberty (10-17) +10000 (Down from No. 7)
The Liberty were desperate for something good to happen, and it came in the form of a 3-point win Saturday night against the Sky at home to stop a five-game skid.
Does New York have a run left in it? After a rematch vs. the Sky in Chicago on Friday, all eight remaining games are against sub .500 teams.
11. Los Angeles Sparks (12-16) +10000 (Down from No. 8)
To say things have gone from bad to worse in L.A. would be putting it mildly. With only a handful of games to go, the Sparks agreed to a contract divorce with four-time All Star center Liz Cambage; averaging 13 points and 6.4 rebounds per game.
Our friend Howard Megdal of "The Next Hoops" reports that Cambage helped get rid of Derek Fisher, and has now quit on the team with someone that was expected to be in her corner in Fred Williams.
Unless this inspires better basketball in L.A, it's hard to see this as anything positive for the Sparks.
12. Indiana Fever (5-25) +50000 (Remain at No. 12)
It's been five weeks, and the Fever still have yet to win a game since June 19 when they stunned the Sky in their home building by two.
It's unlikely their 12-game losing streak ends on Friday when they face the Aces at home, but then again, they did knock off Chicago in a similar spot.
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