Wright State vs. Cleveland State Prediction and Odds (Vikings Make it 3 Straight in Horizon League Semifinal)

The 20-9 Cleveland State Vikings have two wins over Wright State and hope to make it three straight when they take on the 19-13 Raiders in the Horizon League Semifinal at 7:00 PM EST tonight.

Both teams have sputtered a bit of late, with Cleveland State failing to cover the spread in two of their last three and Wright State failing to cover in four of their last six.

With a trip to the NCAA Tournament potentially on the line, where does the value lie in what seems to be an evenly-matched contest?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us figure out the answer to that question:

Wright State vs Cleveland State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Wright State -1 (-110)
• Cleveland State +1 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Wright State: -115
• Cleveland State: -105

Total:

• 144 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wright State vs Cleveland State Prediction and Pick

Cleveland State has two wins over the Raiders and are the No. 1 seed in the Horizon League tournament, so why are they underdogs? They stumbled a bit to end the year and Wright State has three straight wins, but I'm not buying this line.

The Vikings have a few key advantages that point in their favor in this matchup.

First, their offense. Cleveland State has the 32nd-ranked effective field goal percentage thanks to the 17th-best two-point shooting percentage in the country and should have no problem scoring against a Wright State defense that ranks 266th in adjusted efficiency and allows opponents to shoot over 51% from the field. The Raiders have the 248th-best two-point defense, so the Vikings should feast inside.

Second, rebounding. The Vikings have the 33rd-highest offensive rebounding rate and Wright State is a terrible defensive rounding team, so Cleveland State will have plenty of second-chance opportunities even if their shots aren't falling.

Third, turnovers. Wright State turns the ball over on just under 18% of their possessions while the Vikings force turnovers on 21.8% of their opponents' possessions, so unless the Raiders are able to catch fire shooting they won't sustain enough offensive possessions to emerge victorious.

Finally, situational performance. Cleveland State is rarely an underdog but have covered in two of their last three in this spot. Wright State, on the other hand, is just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a favorite and lost three of those games outright.

While this should be a close game, I expect the advantages Cleveland State presents to win out in the end to keep their March Madness dreams alive. Give me the Vikings to beat Wright State for the third time this year.

Pick: Cleveland State +1 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.