Xavier vs. St. John's Prediction and Odds (Julian Champagnie to Go Off on Senior Night)
By Ben Heisler
Julian Champagnie and the St. John's Red Storm close out their Big East season at home at Carnesecca Arena when they welcome the Xavier Musketeers at 6:30 p.m. EST.
Both squads are trending in the wrong direction ahead of Selection Sunday. The Musketeers have lost four straight, including to St. John's 86-73 at home back on Feb. 16 as Champagnie led all scorers with 27 points.
Meanwhile, the Red Storm have now lost two straight after two consecutive blowout wins, including a tough loss at DePaul in Chicago 99-94.
While Xavier is listed as a projected 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament, St. John's is on the outside looking in. Could a home win and a few more victories carry them into a potential at-large bid?
Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Xavier vs. St. John's Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Xavier +1.5 (-110)
- St John's -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Xavier +105
- St. John's -125
Total:
- 154.5 (-110)
Xavier vs. St. John's Prediction and Pick
Earlier today, BetSided's Joe Summers tweeted out how he's backing Champagnie and the Storm tonight, and detailed several compelling reasons why. St. John's had the dominant performance in their last game, Xavier has shown an inability to not only win, but also cover, and Champagnie should be dynamite at home in what may be his final home game.
Give me St. John's in their home finale to cover the 1.5 vs Xavier
— Joe Summers (@IAmJoeSummers) March 2, 2022
-St. John's is 7-3-1 ATS over last 11 and beat Xavier by 13 on the road 2 weeks ago
-Xavier is 3-11 ATS over last 14, failing to cover in 4 straight
-Champagnie had 27 in first game, Xavier has no answer for him
However, the short odds scare me, since St. John's absolutely feels like the right play, making me believe the oddsmakers at WynnBET might know something we don't.
Instead, I'll lean towards the over at 154.5. Granted, it's a very high number, indicative of St. John's offense operating at the second fastest pace in all of college basketball, but the Musketeers play fast as well, ranking 54th in average possession length and come in with a higher KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency number than the Red Storm (47 compared to 66 overall).
The real reason I like the over is less about St. John's, but more about Xavier.
The Musketeers have basically punted on any sort of defense over their last five games. Via CBB Analytics, their defensive rating over that time ranks in the 1st percentile of all of college basketball. Yes. It's been that atrocious.
You may be considering OVER 154.5 in Xavier-St. John's b/c of how fast the Red Storm play; top 2 in CBB in pace.
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) March 2, 2022
HOWEVER...
Via @CBBAnalytics, Xavier's Defensive Rating is 115.7 over their last 5 games, ranking in the 1st percentile. ?
Can't bet the OVER fast enough.?♂️ pic.twitter.com/Or5Cs8t7UK
Between Champagnie looking to put on a show, both teams playing fast, and Xavier still knowing they're a tournament team without needing a win, I love the expected pace for tonight to go over.
PICK: OVER 154.5 (-110)
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