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Yale vs. Fairfield Prediction and Odds for Monday, December 12 (Don't Sleep on Stags vs. Ivy League Powerhouse)

By Ben Heisler

Fairfield Stags head coach Jay Young looks on from the sidelines during the second half of their November matchup vs. the Xavier Musketeers.
Fairfield Stags head coach Jay Young looks on from the sidelines during the second half of their November matchup vs. the Xavier Musketeers. / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
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It took until Saturday, Dec. 3 for the Fairfield Stags to play their first home game of the 2022 season, but they'll be home cooking all the way through Jan. 6 in the midst of an eight-game homestand.

So far, they're 2-0 at Mahoney Arena, but face a formidable challenger in their in-state neighbors from New Haven when the Yale Bulldogs come to town.

James Jones' squad sits at 8-3 on the season, but have lost two straight road games to strong competition in the Butler Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats; each by 10 points.

Who has the edge in this evening's matchup? Here are the latest odds.

Yale vs. Fairfield Odds, Spread and Total

Yale vs. Fairfield Prediction and Pick

With a slight edge and higher available total being offered on the board tonight, I'll take the under between two of the slowest paced teams in college basketball tonight.

Both of these teams averaged a combined 18.6 seconds per possession, and rank 280th (Yale) and 314th (Fairfield) respectively in possession length. The Stags are fairly atrocious offensively, ranked 289th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency with an effective field goal percentage of just 45.3%. That puts them in the bottom 45 of the country.

Meanwhile, this is a Yale defense that held the Kentucky Wildcats to just 69 points in its previous matchup, limiting them to just eight points in the final 10 minutes of the first half. The Bulldogs rank 63rd in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, and also are amongst the best teams in college in taking away offensive rebounding opportunities for second chance points.

I'm a bit perplexed by Fairfield only being a 5.5-point home dog, given how much better of a team Yale is metrically over them, but perhaps Vegas is expecting a let down spot after previously hanging with Kentucky on the road. That also leads me towards the under, with Yale projected to be under their traditional numbers vs. a team they should easily take care of.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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