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Yale vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Purdue Boilermakers forward Trevion Williams (50) celebrates a basket during the first half of the
Purdue Boilermakers forward Trevion Williams (50) celebrates a basket during the first half of the / Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY
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Purdue comes in on the heels of a Big Ten Conference Tournament Finals appearance against Iowa, and landed a No. 3 seed in the East Region. They are set to face Ivy League winner Yale, who won a thriller against Princeton on Sunday afternoon.

Matt Painter's Purdue Boilermakers boast one of the most electric offenses in the country with guard Jaden Ivey and big man Trevion Williams, but will have a stiff test against No. 14 seed Yale in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, as well as each team's statistical profile and a best bet:

Yale vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Yale: +14.5 (-110)
  • Purdue: -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Yale: +800
  • Purdue: -1400

Total: 143 (Over -110/Under -110)

Yale vs. Purdue Analysis

Yale

  • Regular Season Record: 19-11
  • ATS Record: 14-15
  • Over/Under Record: 13-16
  • SoS: 157th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 101.5
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.2
  • eFG%: 50.1%
  • FT% 73.7%
  • 3PT%: 32.9%
  • Last Year's NCAA Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Purdue

  • Regular Season Record: 27-6
  • ATS Record:13-19-1
  • Over/Under Record: 18-15
  • SoS: 9th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 122.0
  • Defensive Efficiency: 99.3
  • eFG%: 57.3%
  • FT%: 70.4%
  • 3PT%: 39.5%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: First Round
  • Odds to win National Championship: +1000

Yale vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

I'm curious to see how Purdue does after an uninspiring finish to the season, losing two of their last three regular season games before winning a pair of Big Ten Tournament games by single digits.

The Boilermakers defense is a serious concern, ranked 100th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and Yale has a microwave guard in Azar Swain, who is 31st in the country in shot percentage.

With that being said, Purdue should get whatever they want on offense against a vulnerable Bulldogs interior defense, which is 233rd in 2-point percentage allowed.

I lean towards the over in this matchup as both offense should operate quickly, Yale is 86th in adjusted tempo while Purdue boasts the third best adjusted offensive efficiency mark. The Boilermakers are regularly lined in the 150's and I see them flirting with 90 in the first round.

LEAN: OVER 143 (-110)


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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