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MLB Regression Report: Yankees Continue Dominance as Astros Continue to Lose One-Run Games

The Bronx Bombers lead the AL East as Mariners take control of the American League West.

By Marty Coleman

Jun 1, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a single against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 1, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a single against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports / Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports
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About 60 games into the 2024 season the American League West remains an enigma. After all, it's the division that gave us the 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers and the recent dominance of the Houston Astros.

Both of those teams now find themselves looking up at the Seattle Mariners, who after stumbling their way through the first third of the season, have begun to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.

Seattle Mariners Put Distance Between Themselves and Rest of AL West

The Mariners went 6-1 last week, taking three of four from Houston, including a pair of one-run wins.

Seattle has largely been driven by their pitching staff, which gave up only 14 runs in seven games, which included a shutout and five games where the opponent scored 2 runs or less.

The Mariners aren't going to be confused with the '27 Yankees on offense, but when your pitching staff gives up a couple runs per game, you always have a chance and the Mariners take home the "Living The High Life" award for the week.

Are the New York Yankees the Best Team in Baseball?

Speaking of the Yankees, they take our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award this week and what they are is 42-19.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge combined for seven home runs and 17 RBI for the week as the Yankees went 5-1.

The Yankees look like the best team in baseball and Gerrit Cole is readying for a rehab assignment, which will add another weapon to an already loaded team.

Houston Astros Drop to 5-13 in One-Run Games

The margin of error in the Major Leagues is often tiny, just ask the Houston Astros, who went 2-5 on the week, including 0-3 in one-run games and falling 7.5 games behind the Mariners.

The Astros haven't been able to put teams away like they once did and it continues to cost the team as they lose close game after close game.

The regression report suggests Joe Espada's club has some upside and that will earn them the "It's Not Over Till It's Over" award for the second time in three weeks, but it's getting close to being over for this team.

Maybe the Astros can turn it around, but not only are they 7.5 games behind the Mariners, they are also ninth in the Wild Card race.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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